Rayo Majadahonda vs Cordoba Predictions

It’s not been an ideal first season at this level for Rayo Majadahonda, though given that they have one of the lowest budgets in the division, they’ve pretty much met expectations. As things stand, Saturday’s hosts are heading back down to the third tier of Spanish football, though as they’re only two points shy of safety, they can still turn things around. In contrast, Cordoba are already down and thus they’ve got little left to fight for.

Rayo aren’t in the most flattering league position, but they’ve certainly not been pushovers on their own patch. Though they have lost seven times at home and although they have the 18^th worst home record, they’ve still avoided defeat on 12 occasions, while they’ve only conceded one more goal than they’ve scored. Such a record isn’t overly appealing, but it’s not as bad as it may first appeal, especially when we factor in Cordoba’s record on the road.

Playing away from home certainly hasn’t agreed with Cordoba this season. Saturday’s visitors have won just one of their 19 travelling matches, have scored just 15 goals and have conceded a whopping 37. They’ve also lost no less than 13 times away from home during the current campaign.

If we consider Rayo’s home efforts in relation to Cordoba’s travelling efforts, then it’s not at all difficult to see this as a huge opportunity for the hosts. Going forward, as they average only 1.16 goals for and 1.26 expected goals for, they’ve not torn teams apart, but they’ve been sturdy, as they’ve surrendered only 1.21 goals and 1.1 expected goals for.

Sturdy is not something that Cordoba have been on the road. The visitors have surrendered an average of 1.54 expected goals on their travels, while they average just 0.74 going the other way.  A lack of creativity and end-product in the final third, not to mention a lack of solidity at the back, has cost Cordoba time and time again away from home this season. Such weaknesses can help Rayo get the desired result on Saturday.

However, while the hosts certainly appear to be likely winners, they’ve been massively overestimated in the betting. The fact that the visitors have nothing to play for has obviously contributed to such a short price-tag, though it’s important to remember that such a fact doesn’t guarantee victory for Rayo. Frankly, backing the hosts at the current prices represents little value.

One bet that does catch the eye at the prices is ‘Under 2.5 Goals’. Given that neither side excels in the creativity department, what with the pair averaging a combined 2.03 expected goals for in their respective home and away games, it’s easy to feel that a lack of goals is slightly more likely than the current odds suggest.