Red Bull Salzburg vs Sturm Graz Predictions

Salzburg are the dominant team in the Austrian Bundesliga in recent years, winning the league for the last 5 consecutive years. This season looks to be no different to the previous 5 as they lead the division by 11 points after just 20 rounds of fixtures. They look nailed on for their 6th title in a row and their 10th title in 13 seasons.

Last year’s runners Sturm Graz are having a less impressive season than they did last year as they sit 6th in the table with 27 points from their opening 20 fixtures. They just sit inside the cut line for the Championship round and it’s a place they would like to remain.

Salzburg are irresistible at home, this season they have played 10 games at home and have won 9 and drawn 1. The only game they have drawn was a 1-1 draw to Wacker Innsbruck. Going back even further they are truly phenomenal at home unbeaten in 38 league games at the Red Bull Arena, winning 32 and drawing 6. This really is a fortress for the champions.

Sturm Graz have only won 3 away games this season yet rank as high as 3rd in the away table thanks to their resilient defending. They have drawn 5 and lost just twice on the road this season, conceding just 11 goals in the process, which is less than runaway leaders Salzburg (12).

Salzburg are prolific scorers home and away, averaging 2.5 goals per game away from home and 2.4 goals per game on home soil. Their defence at home is almost watertight, conceding just 6 goals in 10 games this season. Sturm Graz score 1.1 goals per game away from home which ranks 7th but only concede 1.1 per game on the road, 3rd lowest in the division.

Salzburg are a bigger price than we expected at around the 1/2 mark with most bookmakers, considering they have won 32 of their last 38 league games we feel that is pretty generous. Salzburg have upped the tempo of late at home winning 3-0 and 5-1 in their last 2 outings both at teams above Sturm Graz in the table and we think they will do the same here. For that reason we are backing Salzburg -1 handicap as our main tip. For the correct score, Salzburg’s defence has been rock solid this season and can see them winning this 3-0.