Rochdale vs Oxford United Predictions

Prior to Saturday’s game against Shrewsbury, Rochdale looked doomed; they’d lost four on the bounce and were seemingly going down without a fight. However, after winning last time out, there’s a glimmer of hope for Dale, who’re three points shy of safety at present. This match against an Oxford side that is currently just two points above them represents a chance for them to improve their fortunes further.

Defensively, they weren’t exactly flawless at the weekend, but they offered plenty more going forward than they gave away at the back, which is why Dale managed to emerge victorious. The fact that they ended the game with an expected goals difference of +0.86 suggests that they were just about value for their win.

The bottom line is that Rochdale are very poor at the back; they’ve struggled to keep things tight all season long and that is unlikely to change at this late stage. Even at home, they’ve given far too much away, as recent expected-goals against numbers of 1.26, 4.4, 2.12 suggest. If they’re to stay up, Dale need to simply offer plenty going forward, much as they did last time out. The fact that they clocked 2.12 expected goals for against Shrewsbury, as well as 2.98 against Wimbledon, shows that the side currently under the temporary stewardship of Brian Barry-Murphy and Tony Ellis can offer a good amount in terms of creativity, while all the time that they’ve got Ian Henderson in their forward-line, then they’re unlikely to lack end-product.

Like Rochdale at home, Oxford have found it reasonably tough to keep teams at bay on their travels this season. Karl Robinson’s men have sometimes restricted their opponents, though the fact that they’ve shipped an average of 1.72 goals on the road tells us that they haven’t been great at the back. Moreover, they’ve shipped an average of 1.46 expected goals, which suggests that teams don’t exactly find it difficult to create against the U’s.

Fortunately, Oxford have also shown that they can compete offensively on the road, especially against sides that aren’t solid at the back. Robinson’s men went away and scored twice against Accrington recently, while they’ve also notched twice on the road against Fleetwood, Doncaster, Peterborough and Scunthorpe. Unfortunately, the U’s conceded at least twice against each of those five opponents.

When we run the numbers, it’s easy to see the goals flowing at Spotland on Tuesday night. More importantly, it’s easy to feel that supporting a high-scoring game represents a slice of value. At the prices, the bet that really stands out is ‘Over 3.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score’. Rochdale have been no strangers to both creating chances and scoring goals at home of late, though they’ve struggled massively to keep teams out. Against relegation rivals, they should make plenty happen in the final third, but at what cost? Add in the fact that Oxford, who’ve shipped at least two goals in seven of their last ten on the road, have been prone to high-scoring games away from home over the last few months and getting behind a real high-scoring encounter makes plenty of appeal.