Sevilla vs Lazio Predictions

Sevilla would’ve probably taken a draw from the first leg, though they returned to Spain off the back of winning by a goal to nil in the Italian capital. Such a result puts Wednesday’s hosts in a strong position, a position that they’ll fancy themselves to capitalise on in front of their own fans.

The Andalusians were probably as surprised as anyone by the level of Lazio’s efforts last week, but they wasted little time and took advantage of how poor their opponents were. That said, Pablo Machin will probably be a little displeased that his side didn’t gain an even greater advantage, such was the lowly level that their hosts were at. At 0-1, Sevilla had a couple of sizeable scoring opportunities on the break, and the fact that they ended the game having clocked 2.19 expected goals for tells us that they really ought to have scored another goal.

While Wednesday’s hosts will be slightly disappointed that they’re not starting this fixture with a 2-0 aggregate lead, they will take plenty of confidence from that fact that they were easily the better side at Stadio Olimpico a week ago, while they’ll also take confidence from their overall efforts at home this season, which have been very pleasing. Sevilla have avoided defeat in each of their last nine at Ramon Sanchez-Pizjuan, seven of which they’ve won, while they’ve also scored at least twice in seven of those nine. Moreover, they’re averaging an encouraging 2.12 expected goals for in front of a home crowd.

In addition to their rather lacklustre performance in the first leg, Lazio have been very hit and miss on the road this season, while they’ve tended to struggle against the better teams, as they’ve lost each of their four away matches against sides currently residing in the top eight.

Lazio, who’re averaging a modest 1.38 expected goals for on their travels in Serie A, are also not offering anywhere near as much going forward on the road as Sevilla are at home, which doesn’t bode well considering that they need to force the issue in Andalusia on Wednesday evening.

With the way this tie is set up, coupled with how the pair performed last week, Sevilla are very hard to look past. At the prices, the bet that stands out is ‘Sevilla to Win & Over 1.5 Goals’. Machin’s men have an excellent attacking record at home this season, while they proved last week that they can easily get at a Lazio back-line that looked anything but secure. Furthermore, with the visitors forced to chase the game, the Andalusians will have space to break into, which they very nearly made pay late in the game a week ago.