Shrewsbury vs Scunthorpe Predictions

Things weren’t looking good for the Shrews, who’d slipped right into the thick of the battle for survival, though their win at Roots Hall last weekend was massive. Thanks to that victory, Sam Ricketts’ men have climbed four points above the drop-zone. A win in front of a home crowd on Saturday would put Shrewsbury in a very strong position as far as survival is concerned.

Shrewsbury’s effort last weekend was a solid one; they didn’t dazzle the crowd, but they were very tough to get the better of, while they were efficient in front of goal when chances arrived. If they can get back to giving little away, which is what they did for a long time, then the Shrews should have no problem staying in the division.

Some of Shrewsbury’s recent performances at home haven’t been great, though they have had the misfortune of having to host teams such as Portsmouth and Doncaster, both of whom will be in the play-offs come May, so perhaps they should not be judged too harshly. If we look at their efforts against sides of Scunthorpe’s ilk, then it’s slightly a different story.

In their penultimate home game, Shrewsbury beat Wycombe, as they clocked 1.66 expected goals for and conceded 1.14. Prior to that, they drew against AFC Wimbledon, but were once again easily the better side in terms of creativity, as they emerged with an expected goal difference +0.86 and having conceded zero shots on target. In fact, Shrewsbury are unbeaten at home against teams currently residing in the bottom half, as they’ve won five and drawn three against such teams.

Scunthorpe’s recent efforts have been very up and down, but they continue to be a side that gives far too much away. The Iron, who recently parted company with Stuart McCall, have now conceded in each of their last four, shipping a total of seven in the process. Furthermore, they come into this game having shipped expected-goals figures of 1.36, 1.82 and 2.18 in their last three.

In addition to some worrying defensive displays of late, Scunny, who were beaten by fellow strugglers Wimbledon last weekend, come into his match having lost each of their last five on the road. During that time, they’ve shipped ten goals and have conceded at least twice in four out of five. They’ve also been outperformed in terms of expected goals in four of those five.

Overall, siding with the hosts is not tough to do. Shrewsbury, who boast an average expected goal difference of +0.32 at home, have offered more at both ends of the pitch than Scunthorpe, who currently have an average expected goal difference of -0.74. Add in Shrewsbury’s very encouraging home record against bottom half teams and it’s easy to feel that Sam Rickett’s men should be a tad shorter in the betting.