Stuttgart vs Wolfsburg Predictions

It’s not been a good season for Stuttgart, there’s no getting away from that, though they still have a chance to save themselves. As they’re currently five points ahead of Nurnberg, Nico Willig’s men can ensure that they avoid automatic relegation by winning on Saturday. Even if they win, they will be forced to play against the side that finished 3^rd in the second division to determine whether they stay in the division or not, though at least they’ll then have a very real chance of surviving.

When Stuttgart beat Gladbach at home a fortnight ago, they would’ve been hoping to go on something of a winning run, though they moved back in the wrong direction last time out, as they lost by three goals to one away at Hertha. They probably won’t go down automatically, but that defeat left the door ajar for Nurnberg, who’re hoping to close the gap between themselves and Stuttgart.

Wolfsburg are a side in form right now, so this is no easy task for Stuttgart, though the hosts will be thankful that they’re playing in front of a home crowd, which is where they’ve performed respectably of late. Stuttgart have lost just one of their last five matches at home, while they come into this game having beaten Gladbach when last in action at this venue.

However, despite some decent results, Stuttgart continue to defend poorly on their own patch. They’ve kept just one clean sheet at Mercedes-Benz Arena since the start of December 2018, while they’ve recently conceded expected-goals numbers of 1.83, 1.89. 1.68 and 1.68. Moreover, they’ve shipped an average of 1.69 goals at home this season, which isn’t good enough considering that they’ve only scored an average of 1.19.

Similarly, Wolfsburg have often struggled to create more than their opponents when playing away from home. Saturday’s visitors did win their most recent away match, as they beat Hoffenheim by four goals to one, while they’ve also scored more goals than they’ve conceded overall on the road this season. However, if we look at the underlying numbers, it’s easy to see that Die Wölfe have often given more away than they’ve created. They average 1.36 expected goals for on the road and have conceded an average of 1.75.

At the end of the day, as the side challenging at the right end of the table, Wolfsburg deserve to be favourites, though if we compare their overall away-day efforts with Stuttgart’s efforts at home, we can conclude that they’re too short in the betting. Reversely, the hosts look a tad overpriced.

Stuttgart haven’t been great at the back when playing at home, though their average of 1.5 expected-goals against at home is better than Wolfsburg’s average of 1.75 expected-goals against on the road. All in all, Stuttgart look to have a slightly better chance of getting a positive result than the current odds suggest, so a small punt on ‘Stuttgart Draw No Bet’ offers punters some value.