Walsall vs Oxford United Predictions

Relegation is now looking like a distinct possibility for the Saddlers, who’ve flirted with the drop-zone for much of the campaign. Dean Keates’ men find themselves inside the bottom four and as they’ve lost each of their last four, it doesn’t look like they’re putting up much of a fight. This home match against Oxford is nothing other than a must-win for Walsall.

Recent form would suggest that they’re not doing much to prevent relegation, while Walsall were beaten by Doncaster last weekend, but their efforts both in general and last time out haven’t been too poor. In fact, based on the chances that they created, as they posted 1.76 expected goals for to Doncaster’s 1.61, the Saddlers really ought to have taken more from the game. That result will be tough to take, as points are essentially all that matters at this late stage, though Keates’ men should be able to take confidence from their efforts last time out, a repeat of which would likely see them do well on Saturday.

As far as home performances are concerned, Walsall have looked useful of late, especially going forward. Last time out at Bescot Stadium, the Saddlers were desperately unlucky not to take at least a point, as they once again created more than their opponents, while they showed themselves to be strong in the final third against promotion-chasers Portsmouth, who they scored twice against and created 2.12 expected goals for. The fact that Walsall have outperformed their opponents, two of which have been top-four teams, in each of their last three is promising.

Unlike Walsall, who’ve not exactly been getting the luck that they deserve over the last few weeks, Oxford have been getting the rub of the green. They deservedly got the better of both Bradford and Coventry, though they were slightly fortunate when a stoppage time strike secured them all three points against Wycombe last time out, or at least that’s what the fact that they emerged from the game with an expected goal difference of -0.31 suggests.

In terms of their recent away-day displays, Oxford have been a bit in and out. They looked useful when edging out Coventry by a goal to nil a fortnight ago, but their efforts away against Rochdale and Gillingham prior to that weren’t overly impressive. The U’s, who’ve conceded just one goal in their last four on the road, have looked useful at the back, but they’ve been lacking both in terms of creativity and potency at the other end of the pitch on their travels, which is why they’ve scored just twice in their last four travelling matches. In addition, they’ve not looked great in terms of expected goals for, as their last four figures read 1.3, 0.92, 1.41 and 0.71. Such numbers don’t stand up too well next to Walsall’s recent numbers at home.

At the end of the day, Oxford have become quite sturdy, so much so that they could easily go to Bescot Stadium and frustrate, though it is the hosts who’ve offered considerably more going forward of late. As the hosts have looked better going forward at home than Oxford have on the road of late, it’s quite easy to feel that they’re overpriced in the early betting. After some good performances against top sides, this is a good opportunity for the Saddlers to regain the winning thread and they’re backed to do just that.