Zenit St Petersburg vs Fenerbahce Predictions

Zenit will have been disappointed to leave Turkey without scoring in defeat last week, though they only lost by a single goal, so they’re still very much in this tie. Having prevented Zenit from scoring, it is Thursday’s visitors who have the upper hand, though they’ll need to score on the road to press home their advantage.

The Russians were defeated in the first leg last week, but it’s hard to say that their defeat was merited. In what was a very close match, Zenit struggled to get going offensively, but they didn’t exactly allow their opponents an abundance of chances, so it was perhaps a tad unfair that they lost, or at least that’s what the fact that they ended the game with an expected goal difference of only -0.04 suggests.

All is certainly not lost for Thursday’s hosts, who having restricted their opponents to minimal chances on the road, ought to fancy their chances of turning things around, especially since they were very good at home during the group stages. Prior to the start of the knockout phase, Zenit won each of their three group matches at Saint Petersburg Stadium, scoring a modest four goals but conceding just one. They didn’t exactly dazzle going forward, but they were solid and surrendered an average of just 0.83 expected goals.

In contrast, Fenerbahce were poor away from home during the groups. The Turkish outfit lost heavily away against Zagreb (and deservedly so), while they also lost away against minnows Spartak Trnava. On that occasion they offered very little going forward, as they recorded a measly 0.33 expected goals for. Unsurprisingly, they failed to find the net in that game. They did draw away to Anderlecht, though considering that the Belgian side never looked like making it through to the knockouts, that point isn’t worth bragging about.

Ahead of last week’s first leg, Fenerbahce’s overall home efforts in this competition made them look a good bet. This week, the reverse is true. Fenerbahce showed little away from home during the groups, while Zenit were very solid.

If they can continue to give little away on their own patch, then Zenit can edge themselves back into this tie. They’re unlikely to win in high-scoring fashion, though if they defend stoutly, much as they did at this venue against the likes of Bordeaux and Copenhagen during the groups, they can get the job done. All things considered, backing a narrow home win by being on ‘Zenit to Win & Under 3.5 Goals’ is the way to go.