Before becoming a Sports Journalist for Free Super Tips, Aaron spent three years studying Sports Journalism at the University of Sunderland while taking in the Black Cats' 'glory years' under Martin O'Neill. Now back in Northern Ireland he turns niche stats into predictions for FST, while he's one of the few people on this island who is equally comfortable at Windsor Park and the Aviva.
While many of Europe’s top divisions look like one-horse races, that’s no longer the case in Italy. Juventus have seen their iron grip on the division broken in the last couple of years, with AC Milan wrestling the title off neighbours Inter last season.
Juve are trying to roll back the clock by resigning Paul Pogba to work under Max Allegri. Inter are looking to the past as well, moving to bring Romelu Lukaku back to the club after a 12-month absence.
Given that AC Milan haven’t stood still this summer and Roma have produced arguably the coup of the window, Serie A is the most open of Europe’s Big Five leagues. There are a lot of contenders, but just who should you back? See our outright predictions for the title, top four and golden boot below.
Serie A 2022/23 winner odds
- Inter Milan at 7/4
- Juventus at 15/8
- AC Milan at 4/1
- Roma at 8/1
- Napoli at 16/1
Only Serie A and La Liga among Europe’s top divisions don’t have an odds-on favourite for the title this term. While there are contenders in Spain, fourth-favourites Sevilla clock in at 25/1. Compare that to Serie A, where sixth-favourites Atalanta are a 20/1 shot to finish top.
Serie A 2022/23 outright predictions & tips
Winner – Inter Milan at 7/4
While this is likely to be an open race, I see Inter Milan as worthy favourites. They were just two points off retaining their title last term, despite losing Romelu Lukaku, Achraf Hakimi and Antonio Conte the summer before.
Simone Inzaghi took over in a tough spot and took Inter out of their Champions League group, pushed for the title and won the Coppa Italia. They were still the league’s top scorers without Lukaku, so the Nerazzurri look a scary prospect with the Belgian back leading the line.
Juventus have clearly improved with their signings, but it’s hard to see that being enough to close the 16-point gap between them and the title last season. AC Milan should also have a strong year, but they can’t match Inter’s game-changing signings of Lukaku and goalkeeper Andre Onana.
The Nerazzurri have added to the league’s best attack with a world-class striker who is proven in Italy, while they only conceded one goal more than the league’s best defences last term. With a good addition in goal, Inter should be the strongest all round side in Italy this season – making them a great bet at 7/4 for the title.
With Paul Pogba set for a prolonged spell on the sidelines, AC Milan look like Inter’s biggest challengers. Given that, there’s a lot of value in backing Inter first, Milan second and Juve third at 16/1.
Top four – Roma at 6/5
Arguably the team who have come closest to matching Inter’s improvement is Roma, who have followed up their Europa Conference League success by luring Paulo Dybala from Juventus. While the Argentine probably had his sights set higher, belt-tightening around Europe allowed Jose Mourinho to swoop and bring him to the Italian capital.
Nemanja Matic linking up with Mourinho for the third time should work, while Zeki Celik looks like a solid defensive addition for the Portuguese.
Napoli have been weakened since their third-placed finish last term and Lazio need to sort out their leaky defence. Roma have built on last year’s good foundation and the partnership of Dybala and Tammy Abraham looks promising, so back Roma to leap back into the elite.
Relegation – Empoli at 7/4
Empoli have lost two highly-rated talents in this window, with Mattia Viti set to follow Kristjan Asllani out the door. Departing alongside them in Aurelio Andreazzoli, who ended his third spell in charge with the club safely in 14th.
They’ve made an odd move to replace him, going for Paolo Zenetti. The former Empoli man has a connection to the club, but he was sacked by Venezia in April after eight-straight defeats left the club bottom of the table. That track record is a worry, so I can see Empoli struggling this term.
Even despite Andreazzoli’s success last term, the club had one of the three worst defences in Serie A. On top of that, the club rarely stay in the top flight long. They’ve been promoted to Serie A seven times, being relegated within three years of each promotion so far. On four occasions their top-flight stay has lasted just two seasons, a worry ahead of the start of their second campaign back at this level.
Top scorer – Ciro Immobile at 5/1
Immobile is chasing a record-equalling fifth Capocannoniere win, so it’s odd to see him third in the betting ahead of the new campaign. He’s won it in two of the last three seasons, scoring 83 goals in 103 games in that time.
Lazio were Serie A’s second-highest scorers under Maurizio Sarri last term and they should be an attacking force once again, marking Immobile out as a great option. He also has the unwanted benefit of missing the World Cup, unlike market frontrunners Romelu Lukaku and Dusan Vlahovic.
Lautaro Martinez and Abraham round out the top five favourites, but their clubs have added new forward options which could split the goal share. Given that, Immobile is the standout to me in this market.
Top scorer each-way – Francesco Caputo at 66/1
If you want a bigger bet for Serie A’s golden boot, then look to Sampdoria forward Caputo. He hit 11 goals in 36 games for Samp last term and he’s now 34, but Serie A – and Sampdora in particular – aren’t bad spots for an ageing striker.
Samp have reappointed Marco Giampaolo, who was in charge when a 36-year-old Fabio Quagliarella won Capocannoniere in 2019. Samp should manage Caputo’s minutes well and he’s likely to be at the forefront of an attack-minded side, so he’s worth looking at as an each-way option.
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