Content Editor at Free Super Tips, Alex was born in the shadow of Old Trafford and is an avid Man Utd fan. After graduating from university he combined his love of football, writing and betting to join FST and now closely follows goings-on in all of the top European leagues.
Last season’s Premier League relegation battle went down to the wire but in the end Burnley’s stay in the top flight came to an end, with the Clarets joining Watford and Norwich in the Championship this term.
Bournemouth, Nottingham Forest and Fulham arrive in their place and it is no surprise to see the three newcomers leading the relegation markets.
Following on from our Premier League outright winners & top 4 predictions, I analyse the relegation candidates to pick out the three best value options.
Want the rest of our outright tips? Check out FST’s Season Outrights hub here.
Premier League 2022/23 relegation predictions
FST’s 40/1 Premier League relegation treble
Bournemouth to finish bottom at 9/4
It took a season longer than they would have liked, but Bournemouth are back in the Premier League courtesy of a second-place finish in the Championship. Unfortunately for the Cherries, their stay in the top flight could be even shorter than their recent Championship spell.
Scott Parker’s side are overwhelming favourites for the drop but you can find more enticing odds for them to finish bottom of the table, which looks likely considering their almost complete lack of transfer activity this summer.
This would not be a problem if they had the squad to compete in the Premier League, but that doesn’t look to be the case. They may have achieved automatic promotion but they dropped off in the second half of the season, harbouring only the sixth-best record in the Championship in 2022.
They are worryingly reliant on Dominic Solanke, too, with the former Liverpool player either scoring or assisting 48% of Bournemouth’s league goals last season.
Solanke has improved with age but the Premier League is a huge step up in quality and it is hard to ignore the fact he managed just three goals in 32 appearances during Bournemouth’s last stint in the Premier League.
If Solanke can’t make the step up or, even worse, if he gets injured, Bournemouth have nowhere to turn.
Everton to be relegated at 4/1
A tumultuous season for Everton ended with their joint-lowest points tally since the dawn of the Premier League and things could get even worse in 2022/23.
Frank Lampard was appointed with the club 16th in the table, four points above the drop zone and he bravely led the Toffees to a final standing of 16th in the table, four points above the drop zone.
Since his appointment at the end of January only Norwich and Watford collected fewer points than Everton, with both them and Southampton managing a meagre 16 points from 18 games.
This alone is ominous but their summer business – or lack of it – paints an even bleaker picture at Goodison Park. Star-player Richarlison has joined Tottenham and, after years of frivolous spending, the Everton hierarchy don’t seem keen to reinvest those funds, with the free transfer of James Tarkowski the only arrival so far.
Everton won just one and lost seven of the ten Premier League games in which Richarlison didn’t start last season, with the Brazilian either scoring or assisting almost 35% of their top-flight goals last season.
Unless they can bring in a top-tier replacement – which doesn’t look likely at the moment – I can see them really struggling this term and they look very good value to go down at 4/1.
Fulham to be relegated at 6/4
Propelled by Aleksandar Mitrovic’s record-breaking 43-goal haul, Marco Silva’s free-scoring Fulham side romped to the Championship title last season but, as Norwich showed last season, that counts for very little in the Premier League.
The Cottagers scored an incredible 106 league goals last season but, like Bournemouth, they are heavily reliant on a single player. Mitrovic either scored or assisted 47% of their goals and, much like Solanke, he doesn’t have a great track record in the Premier League, scoring just 24 goals in 104 top-flight appearances.
Last season’s haul cannot be ignored but it would be wise to remember what happened last time Fulham were promoted, when Mitrovic netted 26 Championship goals to guide the Cottagers to the top flight before a meagre three-goal haul in 27 appearances, although admittedly he did struggle a bit with injuries.
Fulham have also lost Fabio Carvalho, scorer of ten goals and assister of eight more, to Liverpool after his breakthrough season. Joao Palhinha and Andreas Pereira are interesting additions but there is certainly no guarantee they can match Carvalho’s output, with the former scoring just three goals in 27 appearances for Sporting Lisbon last season and Pereira proving ineffective in the Premier League during his Manchester United career.
Fulham’s last two stints in the Premier League have lasted just a single season, and all signs point towards them making it an unwanted three in a row in this regard.
What about Nottingham Forest?
Many models predict Nottingham Forest to struggle this season but I think they could be a surprise package.
They may have needed the playoffs to secure promotion but it is worth remembering they were actually rock-bottom of the Championship when Steve Cooper took charge in September last year.
The Welsh manager was an instant success, winning four of his first five matches in charge and completely transforming Forest’s season.
No other team in the division picked up more points than Nottingham Forest since Cooper took the reins and they have made some positive moves in the summer transfer window.
Taiwo Awoniyi scored 15 goals for Union Berlin in the Bundesliga last season and Neco Williams is a highly-rated talent from Liverpool. Their latest signing – Jesse Lingard on a free transfer – showed exactly how important he can be during his loan spell at West Ham in early 2021.
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