Before becoming a Sports Journalist for Free Super Tips, Aaron spent three years studying Sports Journalism at the University of Sunderland while taking in the Black Cats' 'glory years' under Martin O'Neill. Now back in Northern Ireland he turns niche stats into predictions for FST, while he's one of the few people on this island who is equally comfortable at Windsor Park and the Aviva.
On the eve of the first knockout game of the 2022 World Cup, we’ve taken a look at the latest outright odds to see how the contenders are shaping up as they head into the last 16.
We already posted our outright winner predictions for the tournament, but here we’ll flag up any shifts in the betting which have caught our eye.
Latest Qatar 2022 World Cup outright odds
- Brazil – 23/10
- Argentina – 5/1
- France – 11/2
- Spain – 6/1
- England – 9/1
- Portugal – 11/1
While the group stage shocks did play havoc with the prices for a time, things have finished roughly how we had expected them to. Argentina recovered to top their group having drifted out to 9/1 after their loss to Saudi Arabia.
Brazil’s impressive performances so far have seen them priced as the standout favourites, while Spain’s 7-0 win over Costa Rica moved them up in the betting, but they haven’t won since their opening game.
England were as short as 5/1 in the aftermath of their 6-2 win over Iran, but their 0-0 draw with the USA pushed them back out to their starting price of 9/1. The biggest climbers appear to be Portugal, having started the tournament as a 16/1 chance, but they wrapped up their last 16 spot early and moved to 11/1 after two wins from two.
Latest Qatar 2022 World Cup predictions
Are the Dutch contenders?
Our first outright predictions listed the Netherlands at 12/1 as one of our winner picks. The Dutch have an experienced boss who is unbeaten in 10 World Cup games in charge of his nation, while they’ve got a solid defence and a creative midfield. There’s a lot to like about the Dutch, who went through the group stage unbeaten.
However, the Netherlands have drifted from 12s at the start of the tournament to 20/1 heading into the last 16. They are in a tricky half of the draw, with the looming possibility of playing Argentina in the next round. However, Argentina were not themselves for the first two games of the tournament and they improved against a Poland side who weren’t interested in competing with them.
The Dutch have a tricky potential route to the final, with Argentina and Brazil standing in their way if all goes to plan. However, we haven’t get seen solid evidence that the gap which existed between the South American giants and Europe’s elite has been closed.
Louis van Gaal’s side haven’t exactly thrilled in Qatar, but they’ve been good enough to justify backing them to beat the USA in our match predictions. Things get tougher after that, but at 20/1 the Dutch look like excellent outsiders.
How far can Morocco go?
Morocco were able to see off Europe’s highest-placed side in the FIFA rankings, having held Croatia at bay already. They got through the group with seven points to their name and conceded only one goal, which makes them a side to keep an eye on at 100/1.
Having worked so hard to top Group F, it’s tough for them that they’ve ended up facing Spain next, while Croatia meet landed Japan. However, the Spanish have shown familiar issues through their last two games, while Morocco has landed in what seems to be the easier half of the draw.
After their brilliant start, Morocco can’t be overlooked in their clash with Spain, while a potential quarter-final with Portugal isn’t something to fear either. While no African side has ever made the last four, Morocco have huge support following them in Qatar and they’ve already mixed it with elite European sides and topped the group. They could be the first CAF nation to make the semi-finals.
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