AFC Wimbledon vs Wycombe Wanderers Predictions

For the fifth time this season, Wimbledon found the net in the first half last weekend, though for the fifth time, a poor second half proved to be costly. Try as they might, the Dons remain without a win, while they come into this match with just a point to show for their efforts. In contrast, Wycombe have won three out of five and are currently unbeaten.

On the face of it, Wimbledon, who pulled off something of a great escape last term, have struggled massively over the first five match-days. They’ve taken just one point from a possible 15, have conceded more than once in four of their five games, have scored more than once in none of those five, are averaging a poor 0.44 expected goals for and have surrendered an average of 1.67.

However, at times, Wimbledon have been unlucky this season, while they’ve not exactly benefitted from the fixture list either, as four of their first five opponents have been teams that are highly likely to be in the top-six shake-up come May. In their only other match, Wally Downes’ men drew 1-1, so when you look at it that way, there’s probably not as much cause for concern as first appears.

In contrast, Wycombe, who undoubtedly deserve lots of credit for the start that they’ve made this term, have benefitted from mainly facing sides that are unlikely to be challenging for a place in the top six. Bolton, if they remain in existence, will be relegated at the end of the campaign, while both Bristol Rovers and Southend won’t be fighting for much more than survival. The Chairboys’ only real test came away against a very solid Fleetwood side, and although they did cling on for a point, their performance wasn’t overly encouraging.

Going forward, there’s been plenty to like about Wycombe this term. They’ve scored an average of two goals per game, while they’re currently averaging 17 shots for, which is the best in the league. At the other end, things haven’t been so great, as Ainsworth’s men have shipped six in five, all of which have come in their last three. If we exclude their game against an uncompetitive Bolton side then they’re also giving up an average of 1.69 expected goals, which given that they’ve not exactly faced a handful of League One’s best is slightly concerning.

From a betting point of view, although the early league table suggests that Wycombe are considerably better than Wimbledon, the hosts make plenty of appeal at the prices. They’re yet to win a game but facing the Chairboys at home is far less daunting than most of the Dons’ assignment so far this term. Consider this in conjunction with the fact that neither of Wycombe’s two away efforts have been particularly impressive – they weren’t great when drawing 0-0 with a weak Bristol Rovers side and were outplayed away against Fleetwood – and it’s not tough to conclude that Wimbledon, who’ve scored goals at home than the visitors have on the road, deserve more respect in the betting. Therefore, a punt on the hosts to collect their first three points of the season offers punters some value.

‘Correct Score’ players might try a 2-0 home win. Wimbledon are yet to score more than one, but they have scored against some strong sides, while a home match against a Wycombe side that conceded three at home last week and recently surrendered 2.14 expected goals on the road offers the hosts a good opportunity to hit their stride in the final third.