Augsburg vs Nurnberg Predictions

Augsburg have managed quite the turnaround following a slow start to the season. Manuel Baum’s men became the first team of the 18/19 season to take points from champions Bayern Munich with a 1-1 draw at the Allianz Arena a month or so back, while also holding the in-form RB Leipzig to a draw a few weeks later. And if that didn’t make them sound dangerous enough, their tight 4-3 defeat away to league leaders Dortmund just before the international break – a match in which they found themselves ahead in twice – shows how capable the Bavarians are. The return of last season’s second top scorer Alfred Finnbogason from injury has been key to their form and he’s scored five goals in just 306 minutes of Bundesliga football so far, including one from the penalty spot in last weekend’s 2-1 win away to Hannover.

At the other end of the pitch is newly promoted Nurnberg, a side struggling to adjust to the more competitive top flight following promotion from the Bundesliga 2 over the summer. Despite steadying themselves with a hard-fought 1-1 draw at home to Eintracht Frankfurt last weekend, the Bavarians have looked out of their depth a handful of times from late September onwards, suffering huge knock downs by Borussia Dortmund (a 7-0 defeat), RB Leipzig (a 6-0 defeat) and Hoffenheim (a 3-1 defeat). And with just nine points from nine matches, though they’re not in trouble yet, their target of survival looks a big ask, especially with an awful away record looming over them – Nurnberg have lost 9 of their last 10 Bundesliga away games spanning multiple seasons (D1 L9).

Looking at this match betting-wise though, the value looks to be in goals as opposed to the home win. Augsburg boast one of the better attacking records in the Bundesliga, yet could do with some improvement at the back – a good combination for the goals markets. Augsburg have kept just one clean sheet from their 9 Bundesliga outings so far in the 18/19 campaign and notably that includes conceding against the other newly promoted side, Fortuna Dusseldorf, on the opening day (a 2-1 win). And when you look at Nurnberg’s overall record, though they’ve conceded the third most goals of any team in the Bundesliga (20, an average of over two per game), their offensive record is not absolutely dreadful – Nurnberg average one goal per game scored and have found the back of the net in three of their last four Bundesliga outings.

So if goals are to be expected, who gets the result? Well, it’s difficult to look past an Ausgburg win, even though Nurnberg hold the superior head-to-head record between them. As mentioned before, Nurnberg don’t quite look established as a top flight side just yet and only Stuttgart have managed fewer shots on target than Nurnberg in terms of attacking creativity (27). However, fortunately for the visitors, only Dusseldorf and Stuttgart have allowed more shots on target against them than Augsburg (50), so even with a weakener offense, they should still get plenty of chances to get on the score-sheet. Ultimately though, you have to expect in-form players, such as the hosts’ Finnbogason, to make the most of such a favourable fixture, and for us there’s only one way this looks to be going. Our prediction: 2-1 Augsburg.