Blackpool vs Portsmouth Predictions

The last couple of games have been a bit of a comedown for Seasiders’ fans, who after seeing their side win three out of three have now witnessed back-to-back draws, though the Blackpool faithful certainly won’t be displeased. Simon Grayson’s men, who’re yet to taste defeat in the league, come into match-day six in a lofty 2^nd position. Portsmouth on the other hand, are in a lowly 16^th place after winning just one of their first five.

On the face of it, Blackpool are hard to fault; they’re unbeaten after five games, have won three of those five, while they’ve scored an average of 1.8 goals, conceding an average of just 0.8. All is well for the Tangerines, who in stark contrast to what is going on elsewhere in League One, appear to have healthy ownership at long last.

However, while results have bee pleasing, Blackpool have profited from facing sides that aren’t exactly of the highest quality. Rochdale, Southend and Bristol Rovers and Gillingham, all of whom have certain qualities, won’t be competing towards the upper end of the table come May, so it’s not terribly difficult to think that the Seasiders have had an easy run of it during the early weeks.

Moreover, if we scratch beneath the surface, it’s also easy to feel that Blackpool haven’t been quite as good as their points tally suggests. While they’ve scored an average of 1.8, the Tangerines have averaged 1.27 expected goals for, which tells us that their creativity will need to improve if they’re to contain scoring at the same rate. The same can be said at the other end, as an average of 1.35 expected goals against suggests that they’ve benefited from a lack of opposition end-product.

Portsmouth don’t have as many points as Blackpool at this stage, but they have played a game less, while they’ve had tougher assignments, at least on paper anyway. Despite winning just one out of four, Pompey have comfortably bettered their opponents in terms of expected goals in three of those four, which tells us that they should be more than alright in the long run.

As far as betting on this game goes, punters a pointed towards a low-key win for the visitors, who’ve performed as though they’ve got what it takes to hand Blackpool a first defeat of the campaign.

Blackpool aren’t easy to face at home, but they hardly covered themselves in glory when luckily beating Oxford a few weeks ago. Portsmouth haven’t been outstanding going forward, though they’ve still offered fractionally more in terms of creativity than Saturday’s hosts have, while they’ve given far less away, which could be key. Pompey have surrendered an average of 0.7 expected goals, which is 0.65 better than Blackpool. The visitors have also conceded far less shots, surrendering an average of only 6.75. The Seasiders have given up an average of 15.

All in all, backing the visitors to clinch victory without running riot appeals as the best option ahead of Saturday clash at Bloomfield Road.