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Burton Albion vs Bradford Predictions

  • 15:00
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  • Pirelli Stadium
Burton Albion

      odds when tipped

      odds when tipped

      Tip Reasoning

      After a defeat that would’ve been tough to take, Burton needed to bounce back last weekend. They didn’t win, but they did show both character and belief to come from a goal down to draw late in the day at Keepmoat, which has been no easy place to go this season. They also performed with promise against Man City in the Carabao Cup in the week, so Nigel Clough will be expecting his side to produce the goods on Saturday afternoon.

      From an attacking point of view, Burton have been doing well of late. They’re looking to get on the front foot, are creating chances and, crucially, are scoring plenty of goals. The Brewers have now notched nine goals in their last three games, though they’re still falling short at the back. Defending wasn’t a problem when Nigel Clough’s men went to Spotland Stadium and thrashed Rochdale by four goals to nil, but they’ve struggled to keep things tight in their two games since.

      They were unfortunate to lose against Gillingham when they recorded 2.39 expected goals for, but they still gave 1.61 away, while they shipped a rather worrying 2.48 against Doncaster last time out. Even on their own patch, Burton have a habit of allowing their opponents to create, as their recent expected-goals against figures of 1.61, 1.21, 0.87, 1.58 and 1.48 suggests. These numbers are not appalling, but they do show why Burton have failed to keep a clean sheet in any of their last five at home. Fortunately, they’ve scored in each of those five and have posted expected-goals for figures of 2.39, 1.43, 2.35, 0.34 and 1.88.

      Bradford have been very hit and miss on their travels of late, but they’ll fancy themselves to get going offensively having seen Burton’s recent defensive efforts. The Bantams have struggled to impose themselves against the top teams in League One, but their recent travelling efforts against Rochdale, where they scored four goals and created 3.33 expected goals for, and against Plymouth, where they scored three and created 1.76, suggest that they can get competitive.

      Unfortunately for the visitors, they’re finding it incredibly tough to keep things tight at the back. They’ve kept just one clean sheet in their last eight on the road, while they’ve conceded at least three goals in five of those eight. Moreover, Bradford are shipping a woeful average of 2.34 expected goals away from home this season, which tells us that they can be got at quite easily.

      Quite frankly, given the numbers above, it’s a surprise that ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ isn’t a good bit shorter. Neither side have shown much in the way of defensive resilience in recent weeks, while they’ve both offered something going forward. With neither likely to sit back, a high-scoring game looks a tad more likely than the current prices suggest and thus getting on ‘Over 2.5 Goals’ early is the way to go.

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