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Charlton vs Bristol Rovers Predictions

  • 15:00
  • Expired
  • The Valley
Bristol Rovers

odds when tipped

odds when tipped

Tip Reasoning

When drawing away from home against Mansfield in the FA Cup a fortnight ago, Lee Bowyer’s men will have been disappointed, though they bounced back nicely to beat the same opponents by five goals to nil in the replay on Tuesday night. With that confidence-boosting win under their belts, the Addicks will now be confident of enhancing their already impressive league form.

Since losing at home to a very useful Coventry side back in early October, there has been little stopping the Addicks, who’re now unbeaten in five league matches, four of which they’ve won. During that time, with four clean sheets to their name, Lee Bowyer’s men have performed well at each end of the pitch, scoring seven goals and conceding just one.

What’s more, their overall efforts on home soil have been very, very pleasing. Bowyer’s men have tasted defeat just twice at The Valley this season, while they’ve won five of their other seven. In addition to results, the underlying numbers support the notion that Charlton are tough to face on their own patch, as they’re averaging 1.82 expected goals for and just 1.0 against.

Bristol Rovers haven’t been terrible away from home, though they’ve not delivered performances that can match some of Charlton’s efforts at home.

Rovers went out of the FA Cup on Tuesday night, as they were beaten by National League side Barnet. After that disappointing result, manager Darrell Clarke stated that he wanted to see his side shoe their ruthless side, which has been hiding all too often this season, especially on their travels.

Saturday’s visitors did beat Blackpool in their last away match, which is no mean feat, though that was the first time that they scored in six travelling matches, while they’ve scored a measly total of seven goals in nine away games during the current campaign. They probably should’ve got a few more, though the fact that they’re averaging just 1.2 expected goals when playing away from home tells us that they’ve found it tough to both create and score goals when playing away from the comforts of home.

If we consider the fact that Bristol Rovers have struggled massively to impose themselves offensively on their travels with the fact that Charlton, who currently rank 4th in terms in expected goals against, have looked strong at the back on their own patch, then it’s very easy to fear for the visitors ahead of this match.

With an average expected goal difference of +0.82 at home, compared to Bristol Rovers average expected goal difference of -0.12 on the road, and with the hosts averaging 1.82 expected goals for on their own patch, the bet that stands out is ‘Charlton to Win & Over 1.5 Goals’, which has yielded a profit in three of Charlton’s last five on their travels.

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