Dinamo Zagreb vs Saburtalo Predictions

A trip to Georgia could’ve been quite testing for Dinamo Zagreb, though the Croatian outfit got the job done by winning 0-2. Having won away from home, scoring two goals in the process, Tuesday’s hosts are now in an excellent position from which they should qualify somewhat comfortably.

It wasn’t a flashy performance, nor did it ever look like the Croats would run riot, but Dinamo exerted a certain amount of control over their opponents last week, which bodes well ahead of this home leg. Going forward, as they created 1.42 expected goals for and scored twice, Zagreb were useful rather than outstanding, while they also did a solid job of preventing their opponents from creating, as they restricted Saburtalo to just 01.6 expected goals for.

The pressure of playing at home may have got to Saburtalo last week, much as it did in the previous round against Sheriff of Moldova. Against that opponent on the road, Saburtalo did much better, as they won by three goals to one, posting 1.24 expected goals for and conceding only 0.2, though repeating those antics against bigger and better opposition won’t be easy.

Despite the fact that they got a positive result away in the previous round, it’s difficult to see Saburtalo doing well at Stadion Maksimir. Their performance last week was a poor one, and if they can’t get going at home against Zagreb, then they’ve got little chance of doing so on the road.

In the betting, ‘Zagreb to Win & Under 3.5 Goals’ stands out as a viable option. The hosts are big odds-on favourites and they should win with a degree of comfort, much as they did a week ago, though there’s reason to believe that they’ll miss out on running riot.

Zagreb are in total control; they’ve scored two away goals, haven’t conceded and are a 0-0 draw away from breezing into the next round. They should do well at home, but we shouldn’t ignore the fact that they simply don’t need to exert themselves too much. After all, they’ve got harder (and more important) games coming up, while their performance last week points towards a low-key win rather than a rout. The fact that Dinamo have scored more than twice in just three of their 13 home qualifiers since 2013 also points towards a more subdued win for the hosts.