Ecuador vs Senegal Predictions

• Senegal are winless against South American sides at the World Cup
• They’ve only twice won the possession battle in a World Cup game
• Ecuador have faced only one shot on target across their opening two games
• Enner Valencia has scored Ecuador’s last six World Cup goals

Senegal set up showdown

With their 3-1 win over Qatar, Senegal kept their hopes of making the last 16 alive. It’s been a tough tournament for them after losing Sadio Mane to injury, but that victory against the hosts has put them in a make-or-break finale against Ecuador.

The South American side have four points from their first two games and they are in pole position to book their place in the next round. They went close to securing qualification already, after dominating their second game against the Netherlands. They had to settle for a 1-1 draw in that clash, but it offered a lot of encouragement going into the second game.

Big test for Senegal

Not only are the African champions without their best player, but they’re facing an almost unprecedented situation as a nation. They’ve only once made it past the group stage of the World Cup, while their previous meetings with South American sides at the competition have both been winless. Both of these came in the final group game of a tournament, drawing 3-3 vs Uruguay in 2002 and losing 1-0 to Colombia in 2018.

Senegal also don’t tend to dominate games at this level. Against Qatar, the Lions of Teranga enjoyed more possession than their opponents for only the second time ever in a World Cup match (54.7%). They also completed 432 passes in their second game, 125 more than they have in any other match at the World Cup.

It helped that they were playing a poor side who are on course to be the worst-performing hosts in the history of the tournament. This clash against Ecuador will be a completely different test. It could prove to be a step too far.

Ecuador to edge it

Ecuador have faced just seven shots in their two World Cup group stage matches so far, with Cody Gakpo’s early strike in their second game the only one which has been on target. This Ecuador side are clearly very organised, given that they faced 55 shots and 20 on target in their last group stage at the World Cup in 2014.

They look defensively strong and up front they’ve got arguably their great ever goalscorer. Enner Valencia has scored each of Ecuador’s last six goals at the World Cup, with his six goals in the competition twice as many as any other Ecuadorian player has managed. They look to him to make the difference and he’s set to return after an injury scare, so back him to strike against Senegal.

Given how composed Ecuador have looked so far, they should edge this clash with Senegal. The South American side look well set up, they’re good in possession and capable of defending well and they face a Senegal side who struggle to take the game to opponents at this level. Ecuador should prove too strong, with a 1-0 win my correct score prediction.

Best Ecuador vs Senegal betting offers