Barnsley vs Fleetwood Town Predictions

Just a few weeks ago, Barnsley’s position inside the top two was looking very strong indeed, though their defeat last weekend, which coincided with wins for both Portsmouth and Sunderland, means that the Tykes now find themselves outside of the automatic places. If they’re to remain right in the hunt, then they need to regain the winning thread ASAP.

Over the last few weeks, Barnsley have started to give more away at the back; they were fortunate to get away with being a bit open against both Doncaster and Walsall, though Coventry punished them when scoring twice at this venue at fortnight ago. However, the Tykes seemingly didn’t learn from that as they gave a considerable amount away when losing by three goals to one at Burton last time out. As is usually the case, Daniel Stendel’s men offered a good amount going forward, but they were too easy to get at, as they shipped 2.08 expected goals.

In addition to weakening defensively, Barnsley have been struggling to create more than they’ve given away in recent weeks. Somewhat disappointingly, the Tykes have been outperformed in terms of expected goals in four of their last five, two of which were at this venue.

While Barnsley have dropped off the pace a bit, Fleetwood have done reasonably well of late. They’ve avoided defeat in each of their last three, two of which they’ve won, while they continue to be a side that presents the opposition with few chances.

Joey Barton’s men will go to Oakwell having given away expected-goals figures of 0.66, 0.94, 0.5, 0.76 and 1.35 in their last five League One matches. Such numbers bode well, especially considering that Barnsley have shipped 2.08, 1.03, 1.69, 2.08 and 1.17 in their last five.

Furthermore, Fleetwood have made a good habit of hanging in games on the road, giving a limited amount away. The Cod Army have lost just two of their eight on the road, while they’ve recently shipped expected-goals numbers of 0.94, 0.76, 1.35, 0.78 and 0.85.

Not only have Fleetwood looked relatively useful from a defensive point of view on the road of late, but their overall defensive efforts away from home this season have been almost as good as Barnsley’s at home. The visitors have surrendered an average of just 0.9 goals away from home, while Barnsley have shipped an average of 0.8 at home.

All things considered, it’s not difficult to conclude that the visitors are overpriced in the early betting. When we combine the fact that Barnsley have been struggling a tad of late with the fact that Fleetwood are no easy side to get the better of, a bet on ‘Fleetwood +1 Handicap’ stands out as a viable option.