Germany vs Armenia Predictions

• Germany have not won a non-friendly match by more than three goals in almost two years.
• Armenia are currently top of Group J with one more point than Germany.
• Armenia have not lost any of their last nine non-friendly matches (Won six, drawn three).

Don’t count on Germany running up the goals

Germany brought in Hansi Flick to reinvigorate their World Cup qualifying campaign, but Thursday’s 2-0 win in Liechtenstein suggests the ex-Bayern Munich boss has plenty still to do to make them the force of old.

By scoring only two goals against a team of (mainly) part-time players, Germany fared only slightly better than Armenia did when they won 1-0 away in March.

The goal expectancy from both encounters is very similar and other results so far in this group suggests these two sides are much closer in ability than the betting markets make out.

Germany lost to North Macedonia while Armenia drew, and Joaquín Caparrós’ side overcame Romania by the same single-goal margin as Die Mannschaft did.

Armenia look seriously undervalued by the bookmakers heading into this one because surely they can’t be overrating a Germany side that has produced too many bang-average displays since they were stunned 6-0 by Spain last year.

The Armenia +3 handicap looks very backable to us and, although we believe the visitors could keep it close for long spells, are taking a 2-0 correct score play on the Germans because Caparros’ team will be up against some quality players no matter how disjointed they have become.