Gremio vs River Plate Predictions

Wednesday’s Copa Libertadores semi-final, second leg action sees Gremio doing battle with River Plate. The Argentine visitors will be looking to come back from a goal down, having lost last week’s first leg 1-0.

Pretty it certainly wasn’t; but Gremio got exactly what they set out for in Buenos Aires last week and are now in pole position. The reigning Libertadores champions spent almost the entirety of the game in their own half, deep behind the ball but showed excellent defensive abilities to frustrate River, whilst stealing a lead from a set piece goal.

Nonetheless, Walter Kannemann was a huge part of said success and has been a key figure in this Gremio side for quite some time now but having been booked in last week’s match, he’s suspended for this one, which has to go down as a huge blow for the hosts. Winning just 1 of their last 5 matches, Gremio aren’t in the best of form but having won the only clash that was of any real importance, booking a place in the final by extending a 6 match Libertadores unbeaten home record is the only target going into Wednesday’s match.

Meanwhile, River have certainly left themselves with a lot of work to do and seemed to let the occasion get to them in the first leg. Normally a real attacking threat on home soil, Los Millonarios never looked like breaking through Gremio’s deep block and misplaced passes time after time, with even the normally razor-sharp Juan Quintero having an off-night.

Still possessing great quality and knowing that arch rivals Boca have one foot in the final, River still travel to Porto Alegre confident of mounting a comeback and motivation couldn’t be any higher. Whilst travelling to face Gremio is always a difficult task, Marcelo Gallardo’s troops are a strong outfit away from home, evidenced by the fact they’ve lost just 1 of their last 16 competitive away games on enemy territory, winning 8 times in the process.

Ultimately, we view this tie as far from over and River certainly have the ability to pull themselves back into it, with Gremio’s lead a significant but slender one. Kannermann’s absence is a truly massive blow for the hosts and is only compounded by the fact that key attacking duo Luan and Everton could miss out once again.

All things considered, backing River on the Draw No Bet line looks to provide excellent value and is where our money is going. Gremio are likely to try and soak up pressure and play on the counter once again, but we cannot see River being so poor in possession for a second time and with the hosts missing a defensive leader, a second shutout appears unlikely.

At worst, River shouldn’t lose on the night against a Gremio outfit more focused on keeping the ball out than attacking, but we fancy the visitors to force penalties with a 1-0 win to tie the scores up on aggregate.