Hamburger SV vs TSG Hoffenheim Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

Escape artists Hamburg still have some work to do to navigate themselves away from the murky waters at the foot of the Bundesliga. Despite taking seventeen points from their last nine league outings (W5 D2 L2), Markus Gisdol’s side remain uncomfortably close to the relegation play-off place, though some well-earned breathing space above automatic relegation. Hamburg’s momentum has prominently been propelled by their performances at home, so confidence should remain high, despite a mid-week 3-0 defeat on the road to Borussia Dortmund.

Hoffenheim extended their unbeaten run to seven matches with an impressive 1-0 win at home to league leaders Bayern Munich on Tuesday. Hoffenheim’s 51 point total sees them standing comfortably within the top four, which not only makes Champions League qualification, but also European football in general, a reachable and realistic goal for the first time in the club’s history. Notably, Hoffenheim have taken 71 points from 40 matches under coach Julian Nagelsmann, a statistic that is only bettered by that of Borussia Dortmund (83 points) and reigning champions Bayern Munich (100 points) over the same number.

TSG Hoffenheim are the favourites here at 5/4 with bet365, but we feel that backing “both teams to score” at 4/6 is the safer bet for the following reasons: first and foremost, Hamburg have thrived at the Volksparkstadion in recent months (W7 D2 L1 over their last 10), winning all of their last three against teams as strong as Cologne, Borussia M’gladbach and Hertha Berlin. Meanwhile, Hoffenheim’s stubbornness to take away at least a point on the road has seen them draw more often than not – Hoffenheim have drawn a massive 54% of their away matches this season. However, both teams have been very strong going forward and consistent in front of goal in 2017. Hamburg have scored at least one goal in all of their last eleven matches at home, while Hoffenheim have scored at least one goal in all but one of their total 13 matches on the road this season. Hence, with the statistics also in our favour – both teams have scored in 77% of Hoffenheim’s away matches – this should be a profitable endeavor.

While Hamburg have been finding goals from all over the park, it’s forward Andrej Kramaric who finds himself most in-form for the visitors. He’s scored seven goals over his last seven outings for Hoffenheim (two braces and three singles), including the only goal against Bayern Munich on Tuesday, which makes him decent value to score anytime at 6/4 with bet365.

Regarding a correct score bet, Hamburg have proven themselves strong at home and Hoffenheim have shown their tendency to draw on the road. Mid-week fixtures will no doubt throw a bit of fatigue into the mix ahead of Saturday and, as such, we feel this match should be closer than it seems at first glance. Hoffenheim have drawn 1-1 in 39% of their away matches – a figure too big to ignore – and, as such, we feel that another 1-1 draw at 5/1 is a decent shout here.