Lazio vs SPAL Predictions

• Lazio have won their games against bottom half sides at home 20-3 on aggregate.
• The visitors have lost 4 of their last 5 matches.
• SPAL’s entire team have been outscored by Ciro Immobile in Serie A this season.
• 7 of Lazio’s 8 home wins have come by a 2+ goal margin.

Derby Setback

Lazio saw their incredible winning run come to an end in the Derby della Capitale last weekend. They were heled 1-1 against Roma, but that point has left Lazio unbeaten in 15 matches in the league.

Lazio’s momentum took a hit in that clash – especially coming straight after their Coppa Italia defeat – but the hosts have a big chance here. Lazio can return to winning ways as one of the league’s poorest sides visit the capital this weekend.

SPAL Fall

SPAL have gained 10 of their 15 points in Serie A this season against opponents currently in the top-half of the table; so they could have some confidence here. However, only Inter (29) have earned more points than Lazio (28) against sides currently ranked in the bottom-half of the league. That’s bad news for a side rooted in the bottom three.

SPAL come into this clash having lost four of their last five matches, including three defeats by two goals or more. They make this trip having lost five of their six visits to sides in the top half of the table, while they meet a Lazio side who have scored 20 times in six home clashes with bottom-half sides, conceding only three in return while winning all three.

Perfect Clash for Lazio

There’s certainly a big enough gulf between these two for Lazio to really run away with the result. Striker Ciro Immobile has scored eight goals more than SPAL in the Serie A this season (23 v 15). Meanwhile, Lazio (14.8%) and SPAL (5.4%) are the two sides with respectively the highest and the lowest shot conversion rate in Serie A this season. That makes this the perfect game for Lazio to bounce back.

Lazio have a habit of big wins at home this term, with all but one of their victories here coming by two or more goals. Meanwhile, half of SPAL’s league defeats so far have come by at least two goals. Given the respective records of both sides, we’re backing a straightforward win for Lazio in this encounter. We’re backing the hosts to cover a -1 handicap with a two goal win or better.

SPAL have failed to score in 64% of their trips, while they’ve lost to nil in 55% of their matches on the road. They come here to face a free-scoring Lazio side who should put clear daylight between them in this mismatch. As a result, we’re backing a 3-0 victory for the hosts as our correct score pick in this clash.