Luxembourg vs Sweden Predictions & Betting Tips, Match Previews

Luxembourg are perennially sitting towards the bottom of their qualification groups, and not many are expecting that to change this time round. They finished 5th in their Euro 2016 qualifying group with their four point tally putting them ahead of Macedonia on goal difference. This time they are up against the likes of France, Netherlands, Sweden, Belarus and Bulgaria, and I don’t see them out performing any of those teams.

Their opening match of the campaign saw them lose an absolute thriller as Bulgaria beat them 4-3. The visiting Luxembourg were actually ahead for a few minutes as a two minute brace from Joachim brought them back from a goal behind. They conceded a few minutes later though and then went 3-2 down until the 91st minute when it looked like they had snatched a point, but straight from the restart Bulgaria managed to get the winner.

This was Luxembourg’s 6th loss on the bounce since their 1-0 win over Greece in a friendly last year. They have lost nine of their last ten games, and even at home they have lost five of their last six.

Sweden are still coming to terms with the loss of one of their greatest ever players. Zlatan Ibrahimovic retired from international football after their failed Euro 2016 campaign. They lost two and drew one of their group games in the competition to go out at the group stages.

They did manage to get a point in their qualification opener when they hosted Netherlands though, but they will be competing against them and France to try and make it to the World Cup in two years time. It won’t be easy for them, but if Netherlands perform as they did last qualifying campaign they have a good chance of snatching 2nd place and going into the playoffs.

Luxembourg may have managed to score three against Bulgaria, but Sweden are a much better defensive unit. The hosts have only scored two goals in their last five home games as well. They are better defensively at home though, meaning that five of their last eight home games have seen fewer than three goals.

Sweden aren’t the best going forward either, and that hasn’t improved since Ibrahimovic’s retirement. Ten of their last 13 games outside of Sweden have ended with fewer than three goals scored, as have three of their four previous meetings with Luxembourg. This makes odds of 6/5 for Under 2.5 Goals look a good value bet, and I’m backing that along with a 2-0 win for Sweden at 5/1 for my correct score prediction.