Monza vs Spezia Predictions

• Monza are unbeaten in their last three games, recording back-to-back wins over Juventus and Sampdoria in their last two.
• Spezia have lost all four of their away games this season, failing to score a single goal and conceding 10.
• According to expected goals (xG), the visitors are the worst attacking team in Serie A, as well as the league’s second-worst defensive outfit.

Monza turn the tide

Silvio Berlusconi’s decision to replace Giovanni Stroppa with Raffaele Palladino following a winless start to Monza’s Serie A campaign appears a masterstroke at present, with the new boss overseeing two wins from his first two games at the helm. The newly promoted outfit are now unbeaten in their last three games, and will fancy their chances of maintaining their form when they host Spezia on Sunday.

Monza’s revival has seen them follow up a draw at Lecce by recording shutout wins over Juventus and Sampdoria, but perhaps the most impressive thing about their recent results has been the way in which they have been attained. Monza have created 3.7 expected goals (xG) in their last two matches, more than they did in their previous five games, and the same measure now ranks them as just the seventh-worst attacking outfit in the division – Spezia being the worst.

Indeed, Spezia have created the lowest xG tally in the Italian top flight, and only Cremonese have allowed opponents to create higher-quality chances, which may be a truer indicator of the visitors’ ability than their points tally. Luca Gotti’s team also possess a dismal away record, losing four consecutive league games on the road while failing to score and conceding 10 times, and this trip could come at the worst possible time for the Ligurian outfit.

Hosts’ momentum set to continue

Given Spezia’s abysmal away record and Monza’s impressive performances under Palladino, backing the hosts for victory appears to be the most prudent play for this clash between sides in contrasting form.

With Spezia failing to score on their travels but Monza yet to hit multiple goals in a home Serie A match this term, meanwhile, a 1-0 victory for the hosts could represent a decent correct score prediction.

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