Rosenborg vs Dinamo Zagreb Predictions

Rosenborg will have had two objectives ahead of last week’s first leg in Croatia; 1. Stay in the tie. 2. Score an away goal. Neither of those objective were fulfilled. After losing 2-0, they’re still alive (just about), but they return home having failed to score an away goal, which could turn out to be the difference. Should the Croats score in Norway on Tuesday evening, Rosenborg will need to notch no less than four.

On the face of it, Rosenborg were well-beaten a week ago; they failed to get on the score-sheet, which suggests that they were poor going forward, while they conceded twice, which points towards a lack of defensive strength. That said, if we dig a little deeper, then the Norwegians look to have been unfortunate.

In Zagreb, Rosenborg, who had most of the possession, registered just one shot less than their hosts, while they also hit the target on just one less occasion. Add in that the visitors created 1.42 expected goals and ended the game with an expected goal difference of -0.37 and we can conclude that Eirik Horneland’s men didn’t deserve to lose by two goals to nil.

The first-leg result will have disappointed Tuesday’s hosts, but they’ll be encouraged by what was a reasonable travelling performance. Moreover, they’ll know that they can do some damage on their own patch.

Zagreb have done a good job away from home in qualifying; they beat Ferencvaros by four goals to nil during the last round, while they recorded an uncomplicated 2-0 win over Saburtalo before that. However, their efforts at home last week weren’t overly encouraging. They delivered the goods going forward, but the fact that they conceded numerous scoring chances on their own patch doesn’t exactly bode well ahead of this away trip.

From a betting point of view, the hosts look good, or rather they’re a tempting price ahead of a match at a venue where they’ve looked very strong. Not only did the efforts of Eirik Horneland’s men suggest that they can hurt Zagreb, but their previous efforts at home in qualifying suggest that they ought to be a good bit shorter. In three home qualifiers, Rosenborg have scored nine goals, conceded just one, while they’re averaging 2.36 expected goals and have conceded an average of just 0.44.

Those looking to nail the score-line can opt for a 2-1 home win, which looks attractively priced. Zagreb are no mugs going forward, as we saw a week ago, but Rosenborg have shown more than enough to suggest that they can outscore the visitors now that they’re surrounded by the comforts of home.