Scunthorpe vs Shrewsbury Predictions

After suffering three defeats on the spin, Scunthorpe, who recently brought in Stuart McCall to replace Nick Daws as manager, have turned their form around of late. The Iron are now unbeaten in four, while they regained the winning thread away at Wimbledon last time out. After that win, Saturday’s hosts will be looking to continue progressing by beating Shrewsbury at Glanford Park.

Scunthorpe may have improved in terms of results in recent weeks, though they’re far from out of the woods. Manager Stuart McCall will have been pleased with the way his side fought their way to victory last time out, though he won’t have been happy with the way that Scunthorpe once again looked a soft touch at the back. Prior to the arrival of McCall, defensive issues were blighting the Iron, and unless they can tighten up considerably in the very near future, results will soon turn sour again.

In each of the last two seasons, especially under the astute management of Graham Alexander, Scunthorpe made a name for themselves as a defensively astute side, one that soaked up pressure, nullified the threat of their opponents and generally gave nothing away. However, this season, they’ve been terrible at the back. No team in League One has conceded more expected goals than the Iron, who’re averaging 2.15 expected goals against per match, which is simply not good enough, while they currently have the worst defensive record in the division in terms of goals conceded.

In contrast, Shrewsbury have looked solid in recent weeks, and as they finally come into a match off the back of a win, a very good win at that, they ought to fancy their chances.

Unlike their hosts, Shrewsbury have been useful at both ends this season. They’ve not scored too many, but they rank highly in terms of expected goals, while they’ve given far less away than their hosts, conceding just eight goals (compared to Scunthorpe’s 18). They’ve also conceded just 9.6 expected goals.

As they don’t give much away, it is very easy to see the Shrews, who delivered an excellent performance to beat Southend by two goals to nil last time out, keeping things tight before hurting their defensively inept opponents at the other end. After all, the visitors are starting to make a decent habit of creating more than they give away, as their expected goal difference of +3.5 suggests. Interestingly a +3.5 expected goal difference is a far cry from Scunthorpe’s -7.2.

In all honesty, even as favourites away from home, Shrewsbury look a tad big in the betting, such has been the disparity between the pair in recent times. Scunthorpe look like doing anything but keeping things tight, while the visitors are starting to look like a well-oiled machine, one that is effective at both ends of the pitch.

Frankly, everything points to the visitors doing well in this fixture, so punters are advised to get behind the Shrews, who’re on the way up after their best result of the season last time out.