Southampton vs Leicester City Predictions

• Southampton have lost six of their first seven games
• The Saints have the fewest shots on target and second-highest shots on target faced
• Leicester’s chance conversion rate is among the best in the league

Bad memories for the Saints

Clashes with Leicester haven’t been kind to Southampton in recent years, dating back to a 9-0 hammering at St Mary’s in 2019. The Foxes also put nine goals past the Saints last season, winning 5-0 at home and 4-1 on the road.

Those clashes with Enzo Maresca’s side won’t factor too heavily here, with the Foxes changing tact under Steve Cooper. That’s arguably helped them adjust to life in the Premier League, with the Saints’ struggling in both boxes despite dominating possession.

Pressure building on hosts

The Saints have just one point to show for their first seven games in the league, despite having the fifth-highest average possession percentage. Their return of 20 shots on target is the lowest in the league, while their 44 against is the second-highest, just behind a Brentford side that endured a tough opening schedule.

None of the three promoted sides have exactly excelled so far, but Leicester are the best of the bunch with six points from seven games. The Foxes beat Bournemouth ahead of the international break, profiting from a side who couldn’t finish their chances or make the most of dominating possession.

Foxes look good to edge it

There’s little doubt that Russell Martin’s approach is best in the long term, but Saints need Premier League revenue to get them difference-makers at both ends. Leicester already have that in the experienced Jamie Vardy, who has helped them in the final third.

Leicester’s approach doesn’t create a lot of chances, but the Foxes have hit the target with an impressive 36.2% of their shots. Southampton are also last in the league in that metric, while they’ve conceded from 12% of the total shots they’ve faced.

Leicester have one of the best shot conversion rates in the league and they should benefit in a game where they’ll be happy to cede control to the hosts. They’ve already scored five times in three away trips, so they should have enough about them to edge out the Saints.

The visitors appeal on the Draw No Bet market, while Jamie Vardy is backed to score against a defence which will likely give him openings. He’s hit the target with 60% of his efforts this term and has two goals from an xG of 1.9.