Strasbourg vs Lokomotiv Plovdiv Predictions

There was nothing flashy about the way Strasbourg ground out the win a week ago, though by scoring an away goal and keeping a clean sheet, Thursday’s French hosts have put themselves in a strong position, from which progressing shouldn’t be too difficult.

After they lost and conceded twice away from home during the previous round, it wasn’t tough to envisage Strasbourg having a tricky evening in Bulgaria, though the French side experienced few problems on route to winning by a goal to nil. Defensively, they were strong, while they also did a good job of preventing their opponents from creating, as they conceded just 0.59 expected goals. They also surrendered just two shots on target, so it was a largely uneventful 90 minutes for keeper Mats Selz.

However, Lokomotiv’s ineffectiveness going forward did stem from the fact that they had a player sent off after just ten minutes. Strasbourg held off their hosts well, but not without a helping hand.

Going forward, the French side looked useful, as they posted 1.91 expected goals for and registered seven shots on target, though again, they profited from facing ten men for more of the contest.

Considering that they were reduced to ten with 80 minutes to go, Lokomotiv Plovdiv will probably view a single-goal defeat as a minor victory. Having given away just one away goal, the Bulgarians will go to France feeling quietly optimistic. If they can keep all their players on the pitch, then there’s no reason as to why they cannot cause Thursday’s hosts a few problems.

In the betting, ‘Over 2.5 Goals & Both Teams to Score’ catches the eye. Strasbourg’s performance last week and their home effort during the previous round, where they scored three goals and posted 2.92 expected goals for, points towards the hosts doing well in the final third, though the visitors shouldn’t be discounted. Plovdiv struggled defensively when playing away from home during the previous round, though they did get on the score-sheet, while they also posted a respectable 1.23 expected goals for. Add in that the visitors now must push to restore parity, which should make for a relatively open encounter, and the price on offer looks a tad generous.