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TSG Hoffenheim vs SC Freiburg predictions for this weekend’s German Bundesliga. Frieburg look to bounce back from defeat when they travel to the Rhein-Neckar-Arena to face Hoffenheim on Sunday. Read on for our free betting tips and match preview.

Predictions & Tips

We use stars to rate our confidence in our tips, with 3 being most confident to 1 being the least.
TSG Hoffenheim to Win @ 100/1

We use stars to rate our confidence in our tips, with 3 being most confident to 1 being the least.
TSG Hoffenheim 2-1 @ 15/2

Reason For Hoffenheim vs Freiburg Predictions

Alfred Schreuder’s managerial reign at Hoffenheim got off to the worst possible start as his side conceded what turned out to be the only goal of the game on the opening weekend against Eintracht Frankfurt. An otherwise promising performance, which included a ruled out goal from Dennis Geiger, offered plenty of reason for optimism, though.

Schreuder’s men went on to score three in a dramatic 3-2 win over Werder Bremen in the match that followed before holding in-form Bayer Leverkusen to a draw just before the international break. Schreuder will no doubt also be happy to see new forward Ihlas Bebou already off the mark, especially with last season’s top scorer Andrej Kramaric (17) still ruled out.

Freiburg are two points better off than neighbours Hoffenheim though, having beaten Mainz 3-0 and promoted Paderborn 3-1 over their first two Bundesliga matches of 2019/20. Christian Streich’s men did, however, come unstuck at the third hurdle against Cologne in their last outing, losing 2-1 after taking a first-half lead.

It was the first time this season that Gian-Luca Waldschmidt failed to find the net – he scored in both league games and the DFB Pokal first round tie before that. He should be feeling confident again on Sunday though, having received his first call-up to the Germany national team for the Euro 2020 qualifiers against the Netherlands and Northern Ireland.

Hoffenheim go into the game as favourites and we feel that there are plenty of stats that make them worth backing. For a start, Freiburg aren’t a particularly good travelling side – in fact, they won just 2 of their 17 away days last season (W2 D5 L10) – while Hoffenheim have won four of their last six at home (W4 L2). Notably, Freiburg hold an aggregate record of 5-13 on goals over their last five away too.

Hoffenheim have had some troubles scoring in their opening few games, but those came in two tricky away games to sides that finished in the top seven in 18/19. And though Freiburg have conceded just three goals so far this season – the joint second-fewest in the division – the ‘expected goals conceded’ model suggests that they should have conceded five – a league-high difference. Freiburg have been riding their luck and it’s only a matter of time before order is restored.

Hoffenheim have a strong record against them too – they’ve only lost one of their last 11 meetings with Freiburg, winning both games last season (4-2 and 3-1) – and all things considered, we like them to get the result again on Sunday. Freiburg are in good scoring form though, and with both teams scoring in each of the last 12 meetings between them, we see them getting on the scoresheet too. Our prediction: 2-1 Hoffenheim.

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