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Vitoria Guimaraes vs FC Porto Predictions

  • 17:00
  • Expired
  • Estadio Dom Afonso Henriques
Vitoria Guimaraes
FC Porto
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Vitoria Guimaraes +2

4/9odds when tipped
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FC Porto 2-1

15/2odds when tipped
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Tip Reasoning

  • Vitoria Guimaraes have lost only one of their last nine games against Porto by more than a one-goal margin.
  • Porto dropped points the last time injured Mateus Uribe missed a league game for them.
  • Vitoria have scored at home to Benfica and Sporting Lisbon already this season.

Uribe absence creates uncertainty over short-odds Porto

Vitoria Guimaraes can give a good account of themselves against a Porto team missing one very important player this weekend, although it may not be enough to avoid defeat.

Vitoria have some momentum after their win at rock-bottom Moreirense last weekend, but will expect at least as tough a time as they got from Sporting the week before when beaten 3-1. However, Porto backers should beware the affect the loss of injured Mateus Uribe for at least a month could have on Sergio Conceicao’s midfield.

The Dragons drew 1-1 at home to Gil Vicente when the Colombian last missed a league game and their other three results without him in their starting line-up this season have been nothing like as convincing as usual. This trip to the Castle could be a tricky one for the champions-elect to negotiate and we are wary about supporting them at their match result price of shorter than 1/2.

Vitoria can keep Dragons on a leash at the Castle

Os Conquistadores, who have taken almost as many home points as Benfica have since the start of November and aren’t far behind Porto on that score, look worthy of support in the +2 handicap market. Vitoria have lost only one of their last nine games against Porto by more than a one-goal margin, so history says these are usually close encounters.

In fact, coach Pepa was in charge of the Pacos de Ferreira team that was the last to beat Porto in the league before they embarked on their current 56-game unbeaten run. But he is also without some players here with Tiago Silva and Alfa Semedo suspended and injuries to Tomás Handel and André Almeida.

Porto have won 11 straight away league games and will probably do enough to make it a dozen, but they have kept clean sheets in only six of 14 domestic road trips to date and without Uribe to balance them out, will be more vulnerable than usual. Hence our correct score prediction of a 2-1 Porto win that would correspond to the three of the last five results between the two clubs.

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