Wolfsburg vs Bayer Leverkusen Predictions, Betting Tips, & Match Preview

Last season was thought to be something of an anomaly for the 2014/2015 runners up, with their best ever year in European competition contrasted against season-long inconsistency in the Bundesliga. Now, that’s not so sure. Wolfsburg said goodbye to coach Dieter Hecking following their 1-0 defeat at home to RB Leipzig on matchday 7, replacing him with interim coach Valerien Ismael from the U23’s. Under his reins, Wolfsburg fell into the bottom three with a 3-1 defeat away to Darmstadt 98 last weekend, however, he will be relieved to have won their first competitive match since August with a 1-0 win away to Heidenheim in their mid-week DFB-Pokal 2nd round match.

Despite neither of their last two matches being particularly “notable” results for a side aiming for European football, Wolfsburg have at least one positive to take away from them – striker Mario Gomez, who hadn’t hit the back of the net this season until last weekend, has scored one in each of his last two appearances. He’s making encouraging progress and seems a decent price to score anytime at 7/5 with bet365 and make it three goals in three.

Meanwhile, Bayer Leverkusen’s shaky start to the new season continued in last Saturday’s shock 3-0 defeat at home to Hoffenheim. 10 points from their opening 8 matches is Leverkusen’s worst start to a Bundesliga season in the past decade and matters have gone from bad to worse during the week. Wednesday saw Leverkusen travel to third tier side Sportfreunde Lotte for their DFB-Pokal 2nd round match, where the sides found themselves tied 2-2 after 120 minutes. Leverkusen were, ultimately, knocked out on penalties, adding further frustration for coach Roger Schmidt. Striker Kevin Volland, who scored both for Leverkusen in their mid-week cup match, found himself in decent form last time out but is unavailable here for his strategist red card against Hoffenheim last weekend.

Though there is decent value in either side for a win here – Wolfsburg at 17/10 and Bayer Leverkusen at 6/4 – an outright win is hard to call, given both sides are horrendously inconsistent and out-of-form. However, we do feel that there are decent value and safer bets to be had in the goals market. Wolfsburg against Bayer Leverkusen has consistently produced some entertaining matches for the neutral fan over recent years – over 2.5 goals and both teams to score has landed in 9 of the last 11 meetings between Bayer Leverkusen and Wolfsburg (results of 3-1, 4-1 and 5-4 win have occurred within the last four meetings). Both teams to score, though short at 4/7 with bet365, has to be one of the safest bets going with 10 of the last 11 meetings (91%) following this trend.

Especially when considering the fact that although Leverkusen are struggling on the road, they aren’t failing to score goals. Leverkusen haven’t failed to score in 16 consecutive Bundesliga away matches, with both teams to score and over 2.5 goals landing in 12 of these (75%). Notably, Leverkusen’s poor run of form on the road has seen them lose 2-1 in four of their last 5 Bundesliga away matches. Meanwhile, though Wolfsburg’s fans have witnessed their side fail to score in three of their four at home this season, Wolfsburg have never failed to score at home in three consecutive matches and they’ve never had to wait more than four games for a home win. Mario Gomez’s progress should help Wolfsburg take advantage of prime conditions against the hugely out-of-form Bayer Leverkusen here. As such, over 2.5 goals and both teams to score at 20/21 and Wolfsburg to win 2-1 at 9/1 are our choice bets.