RB Leipzig vs Hamburger SV Predictions, Betting Tips and Match Previews

RB Leipzig, who are the Bundesliga’s surprise title contenders after promotion into the top flight last season, are no doubt disappointed with last weekend’s 1-0 defeat away to Borussia Dortmund. However, Leipzig’s top form at home means confidence in keeping pace behind Bayern Munich should soon be restored, as the Red Bulls prepare to host relegation struggling Hamburg this Saturday.

RB Leipzig are the bookies’ favourite here at 9/20 with bet365. We also fancy the hosts’ chances and though these odds offer some fair value already, we feel there’s slightly more value to be had backing RB Leipzig -1 Asian Handicap at 33/40 for the following reasons: simply put, RB Leipzig have the best win conversion rate at home in the Bundesliga (W8 D1). Leipzig’s dominance at the Red Bull Arena has seen them win by 2 goals or more in four of their nine home matches (45%) and eight wins from nine matches means that backing Leipzig with a “-1 Asian Handicap” (on average) refunds the stake or makes a profit a massive 89% of the time. Meanwhile, Hamburg, though much improved since their record worst start to a season, still hold the joint 2nd worst away record in the Bundesliga and head into this match off the back of three consecutive away defeats. Not to mention that the “HSV” have the extra strain of fewer days rest since Tuesday’s DFB Pokal match.

Unfortunately, RB striker Timo Werner (joint 3rd top scorer in the Bundeslgia with 11 goals), who has scored at least one goal in each of Leipzig’s last five home matches, is doubtful for this match (see team news). However, Leipzig welcome back 2nd top scorer Emil Forsberg (5 goals) from suspension, who should no doubt be considered a solid replacement. Regarding a correct score bet, we feel that RB’s home form could be enough to see Hamburg concede three goals for a third time in four away matches. However, with Hamburg in reasonable scoring form themselves and Leipzig keeping a clean sheet in just 33% of their matches at home, we feel that there’s decent value to be had in 11/1 odds for RB Leipzig to win 3-1.