Bury vs Luton Town Predictions

Having swapped places with Luton at the end of last season, Bury have done reasonably well in League Two this season; they’re 5^th and on course to challenge for promotion back to League One. Recent results in front of a home crowd should give the hosts confidence ahead of this match, though they’ve need more than belief to get the better of a very strong Luton side.

Bury will be aware that they’re not expected to get past a Luton side that has been in imperious form of late, though such expectations on the visitors should allow the hosts to play with freedom, so they cannot be discounted, especially since they’ve carried themselves well at home during the current campaign.

There’s been plenty to like about the way that Bury have gone about their business of late. Much like Luton in the division above, the Shakers have adopted something of a forward-thinking no nonsense approach. They’ve looked to dominate by getting forward with intent, have created plenty of chances and have scored plenty of goals.

Performances by the Shakers at home have been nothing short of excellent in recent times. Ryan Lowe’s men come into this match having scored four in each of their last two at Gigg Lane, while they’re no unbeaten in five in front of their own fans. What’s more, Bury are averaging a very impressive 1.98 expected goals for at home, which is 1.26 more than they’ve given away on average at the other end. Such stats suggest Luton won’t have things all their own way in this match.

Luton have been one of the most impressive teams in League One in recent times, but it’s fair to say that most of their show-stopping performances have come at Kenilworth Road. They’ve certainly not been poor on the road, but they’ve not been anywhere near as commanding, which bodes well for Sunday’s hosts.

Offensively, Luton still carry a real threat on their travels, as the fact that they’re averaging 1.65 suggests, though some teams have proven that they can be got at. Gillingham breached the Hatters’ rear-guard last weekend, while other bottom-half teams in League One such as Oxford and Wycombe have scored against Luton at home.

At the prices, it really isn’t tough to take a punt on the hosts, who’ve not once failed to dominate a team at home this season. Luton will be the best team that the Shakers have faced, but the prices don’t reflect just how good Bury have been on their own patch, while facing Luton with a home crowd behind you is far easier than travelling to take on the Hatters at Kenilworth Road. With a hugely impressive average expected goals difference on their own patch, compared to Luton’s of +0.16 away from home, Bury are backed to come out on top at what appears to be a slightly generous.