Fleetwood Town vs Luton Town Predictions

Joey Barton’s Fleetwood, who were seemingly heading towards nothing other than mid-table obscurity a few weeks ago, have now won two on the bounce and are thus back in with an outside shot at the play-offs. The Cod Army are now up to 9^th and are only eight points shy of the coveted top six. They’re anything but fancied to make the play-offs at this stage, but they’re certainly not out of it.

Fleetwood weren’t exactly impressive away against Bradford at the weekend, but they were typically hard to beat. They’re not an expansive side and they probably don’t strike fear into the hearts of many opponents, but the Trawlermen are almost always competitive. By having solid foundations, Joey Barton’s men are finding that they can collect regular points without dominating week in, week out.

However, they face a Luton side on Saturday that can be very menacing, especially going forward, so the Cod Army may need to do better going forward. On their own patch, though they haven’t been easy to beat, it’s hard to get excited about what the Code Army have done offensively. They have scored a respectable average of 1.5 goals, though their average of 1.2 expected goals for tells us that they’ve been a tad lucky to score as many as they have, while it also tells us that they’re anything but an overly creative side.

In contrast, Luton have made light work of both creating chances and scoring goals on their travels this season. The Hatters come into this match having scored three goals in their last away match, while they’ve found the net more than once in five of their last seven on the road. Moreover, the visitors are averaging a pleasing 1.6 expected goals for away from home, which suggests that they’re a good bit more creative than Saturday’s hosts.

The visitors have also recently posted expected-goals for figures of 2.13, 1.77 and 1.92 on their travels, while Fleetwood have recently posted expected goals-for figures of 1.22, 1.07 and 1.09 at home. Such numbers don’t exactly bode well for Joey Barton’s men ahead of this match.

The fact that Fleetwood can keep teams at bay for long periods at home is positive, though you need more than that to get the better of this Luton side. Plenty of teams have tried to dig in and make life tough for the Hatters by giving little away this season, but the current league leaders have generally made light work of breaking through.

In the betting, the best option appears to be ‘Luton to Win & Under 3.5 Goals’. The hosts, who concede an average of just 1.24 expected goals at home, can do a good job of avoiding a battering, but they simply lack the forward quality to match the visitors, who’re the best attacking team in the division. With Fleetwood likely to opt for frustration tactics, backing Luton to win in low-key fashion is the best option.