Before becoming a Sports Journalist for Free Super Tips, Aaron spent three years studying Sports Journalism at the University of Sunderland while taking in the Black Cats' 'glory years' under Martin O'Neill. Now back in Northern Ireland he turns niche stats into predictions for FST, while he's one of the few people on this island who is equally comfortable at Windsor Park and the Aviva.
England face Germany at Wembley later in a massive round of 16 clash at Euro 2020. However, glances are already being cast towards the latter stages of the tournament. Here we’ve got the lowdown on England’s potential route to the final and the latest betting odds on who will make the showpiece clash next month.
Don’t forget to check out our England vs Germany predictions before the game, which includes a massive 200/1 tip!
Shades of 2018 for Three Lions
Parallels between Euro 2020 and the World Cup three years ago are increasingly hard to ignore if you’re an England backer, with a very clear and identifiable path to the final opening up, just as it did in Russia.
Back in 2018 England had managed to avoid the half of the draw featuring superpowers France, Brazil, Argentina and Belgium and found themselves housed in a half where the only obvious danger was Spain. And when they were stunned by Russia a couple of days before Gareth Southgate’s side had taken on Colombia in their first knockout game, those strains of ‘It’s Coming Home’ had suddenly been ratcheted up a few notches.
Fast forward three years and who wasn’t thinking the same when the Dutch, seemingly a genuine threat in England’s ‘softer’ half, were being upset in the round-of-16 by the same Czech Republic side England had beaten in the group phase?
Back in Russia of course it ended in tears in the semi-finals against Croatia when Southgate’s young side were already being shoehorned by fans, layers and punters alike into the final. Someone clearly forgot to tell Luka Modric.
Path clearing for England
But however you want to temper expectations, there’s a reason why England share top billing on name-the-finalist permutations. Beat Germany and, once again, a nation will get seriously carried away, because beat Germany and, according to the market, it is games against Sweden and then Denmark standing between England and a place in the final.
The Swedes, of course, were the team we beat in the quarter-finals three years ago, a fairly routine 2-0 triumph courtesy of goals from Harry Maguire and Dele Alli.
Sweden look a better side this time round having gone through Group E unbeaten though the same cannot be said of their round-of-16 opponents Ukraine. They had a decent few minutes in defeat to the Dutch, saw off Group C whipping boys North Macedonia and then blew their decider against Austria.
England would be rock solid favourites against either of those two and also against the Czechs in the semi-finals having already beaten them 1-0 just a few days ago.
However, the Czechs have to get past Denmark first, everybody’s favourite other nation on the back of what happened to Christian Eriksen against Finland and, in fairness to them, playing well.
Denmark versus the Czech Republic is a fascinating match-up between one team who the market figured would be involved – the Danes – and an opponent who have punched above their weight and certainly lucked out against the Dutch when they were reduced to ten men.
Euro 2020 final betting odds
England are 2/1 to reach the final, the shortest priced side from the bottom half of the draw. Spain are the jollies to emerge from the top half at 13/8.
And certainly the round of 16 could not have gone any better for the Spanish. Yes, Belgium and Italy went through and will clash in the quarters to make one semi-finalist. But Spain were slated to meet France in the other quarter so will have been doing cartwheels in their hotel rooms when Kylian Mbappe’s spot kick was saved against Switzerland.
The England/Spain final is around a 13/2 chance, preferred to England/Italy at 15/2 and then England/Belgium at around 9/1. The three favourites with the Three Lions in each of them. Just like three years ago. And we know how that ended!
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