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Statman Dave's Italy vs Belgium predictions
Alex Wrigley
Alex Wrigley
June 30, 2021
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Content Editor at Free Super Tips, Alex was born in the shadow of Old Trafford and is an avid Man Utd fan. After graduating from university he combined his love of football, writing and betting to join FST and now closely follows goings-on in all of the top European leagues.

An enthralling Round of 16 fixture list is done and dusted now and our attentions can turn towards the Quarter-Finals this weekend and, as usual, we have FST’s summer signing Statman Dave on hand to provide you with all his expert insight.

The quarters kick off with Switzerland vs Spain at 5pm on Friday but Statman Dave has his sights set upon the marquee tie of the round as he previews Italy vs Belgium below.

Remember, if you’re looking for our betting tips make sure to head over to our Euro 2020 predictions page and get all the latest insight from FST’s experts.

Statman Dave’s Italy vs Belgium preview

Italy and Belgium have been two of the standout sides in the tournament so far: with a 100% win rate, 17 goals scored and just two goals conceded between them. Looking at the top line, these are two very well-matched sides and arguably the two strongest teams left in the tournament.

However, when you dig a little bit deeper, things aren’t quite as close as they seem. Italy have scored pretty much in line with expectation, finding the back of the net eight times from an xG of 7.1.

Belgium, on the other hand, have managed to score seven from just 4.3 xG (both sides have benefited from an own goal too). Essentially, this suggests that Italy’s tournament has played out how you would expect but Belgium have enjoyed the rub of the green a bit and can perhaps count themselves fortunate to be in this position.

Italy have conceded just five shots on target in their four games so far. That’s frankly ridiculous and it’s really hard to imagine this side being beaten at the moment, especially since there are a couple of injury worries within the Belgium camp.

Roberto Martinez will hope that his wingbacks can punish the space behind Italy’s full-backs, but I don’t think those chances will open up with any notable regularity given Italy’s tenacity in the middle third.

I’d expect Italy to get through here and the trigger-happy Lorenzo Insigne to take 3+ shots – given how keen he is at shooting from crazy angles!

Statman Dave’s best bet: Italy to qualify and Lorenzo Insigne to have 3+ shots

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