Bologna vs Venezia Predictions

• Bologna have won 4 of their 6 home league games, averaging over 2 goals per game in front of their own fans.
• Venezia’s lone away win came on matchday 3, and they’ve scored just 4 goals in 7 away trips.
• The visitors are amongst Serie A’s most impotent attacking teams, but have actually conceded 4 goals less than their hosts.

Home Comforts for Overachievers Bologna

Sinisa Mihajlovic’s Bologna have impressed in Serie A, emerging from the international break level with Juventus and Fiorentina in the table, and trailing 6th-placed Roma by just a single point. Their strong position is almost entirely down to a fearsome record at their Stadio Renato Dall’Ara home. Indeed, they needed 6 attempts to earn a first away victory of the season (which came at crisis-ridden Sampdoria), but have won 4 of 6 in front of their own fans, scoring 13 goals. Their home goalscoring return is bettered by only three clubs, and only AC Milan have won at Bologna this term.

Having said that, Bologna rank just 15th for expected goals in Serie A, which could suggest that their impressive performances aren’t sustainable, but they will nonetheless be confident of preserving their excellent home record when they welcome Venezia on Sunday.

The visitors made headlines with a famous comeback win over Jose Mourinho’s Roma last time out. Strangely, Venezia’s 3 wins this season have all come against top half opposition, while they’ve dropped points against 4 of the 5 teams below them. Although they face a relegation dogfight, the Venetians seem to relish a challenge, and will likely remain competitive this weekend.

Hosts to Overcome Stubborn Venezia?

Venezia, however, are Serie A’s second-lowest scorers with just 11 goals, and have managed fewer attempts on goal than any other team. Only 3 teams average a lower share of possession than Paolo Zanetti’s side, who should be expected to sit deep here. Former Stoke City man Marko Arnautovic has made a strong start to life at Bologna, and will have to provide some inspiration against a Venezia team which, despite their lowly position, has conceded 4 goals fewer than their hosts this season.

While I expect Bologna to maintain their strong home record and see off their visitors, it may not be entirely straightforward. I’m tipping the hosts to win with under 3.5 goals as a good value bet, while 2-0 seems a solid correct score prediction.

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