Cologne vs Magdeburg Predictions

It’s been an excellent campaign for Koln, who’re looking to make a swift return to the Bundesliga, though with Hamburg showing few signs of slowing down in front of them, it is important that Die Geißböcke keep winning. A win on Monday night would see Markus Anfang’s men move to just a point behind the league leaders.

Koln have gone about their business in pleasing fashion of late, as they’ve won each of their last four, while they arrive here off the back of a 3-1 win over Regensburg on the road last time out. In addition, they were 4-0 winners when last in action in front of their own fans. A repeat of that performance would likely see the hosts run riot on Monday.

They’ve certainly been no slouches on the road, but home is where the heart is for Koln. On their own patch, Anfang’s men have been irresistible of late. They pummelled Dresden by eight goals to one at this venue not that long ago, while they brushed aside Furth in their most recent match at RheinEnergieStadion, scoring four goals in the process. No team in 2. Bundesliga have scored more goals in front of their own fans than Koln, who’ve notched an impressive 23 in eight home games.

Furthermore, the hosts are posting some very encouraging underlying numbers, which simply serve to support the notion that they’re strong on their own patch. At home, Koln are averaging a massive 2.43 expected goals for. This tells us that creativity is the least of their worries, while they’re only shipping 1.2 at the other end, which suggests that their attacking efforts outweigh what they surrender at the back by a considerable margin.

Magdeburg haven’t done too badly this season, but they’ve struggled to be at their best on the road, as they’re yet to collect three points on their travels. Given Koln’s attacking prowess at home, the fact that Magdeburg have scored more than once in just two of their away matches is somewhat worrying, as is the fact that they’ve kept just two clean sheets and have shipped a total of 15 goals away from home.

If we look at their underlying numbers, then it’s easy to feel that Magdeburg have been unlucky to concede so many goals. They’re surrendering an average of 1.21 expected goals on the road, an average that if maintained should see them ship a few less over time, though they’re not particularly menacing at the other end, as they’re averaging just 1.33. That said, the visitors will fancy themselves to make offensive headway on this occasion, as Koln have kept just a single clean sheet at home this season.

As has often been the case, Koln have more than enough about them to overcome their visitors on attacking strength alone, but can they keep a clean sheet in the process?

Even against the less forceful attacking sides, Monday’s hosts, who’ve kept just one clean sheet at RheinEnergieStadion, have often been caught out, especially on the break, which is certainly a tactic that Magdeburg will use. With the visitors scoring in five out of seven on the road, and the hosts conceding in all but one of their home games this season, coupled with the fact that Koln have a much superior attack, the bet that stands out at the prices is ‘Koln to Win & Both Teams to Score’.