Germany vs Scotland Predictions

• Germany have conceded in 12 of their last 14 internationals
• Scotland have won once across their last nine games, conceding at least twice in seven of those
• The hosts have won all three games Toni Kroos has featured in since returning to the side, scoring exactly twice in each
• Kai Havertz scored four goals in his final five games of the season and netted against Greece last week

Hosts hope for positive start

Germany kick off Euro 2024 on Friday night hoping for a wave of optimism similar to their run at the 2006 World Cup. Just as they did in 2006, the Germans head into the tournament with signs of a bright new era ahead, following a string of disappointing early exits.

Julian Nagelsmann was drafted in to pick up the pieces following Hansi Flick’s departure in September. Nagelsmann has steadied the ship with three wins in four ahead of the tournament, with the return of Toni Kroos key to their improved results.

A German side on the up meet Scotland, who have endured a slump since wrapping up qualification last year. While that sets the stage for a dominant win for the host nation, it might not be so clear-cut.

Defensive issues remain for Germany

Adding the wisdom and vision of Kroos helps Germany’s build-up play, but their defensive issues remain despite the talent Nagelsmann has at his disposal. Germany fell behind against Greece in their final warm-up game a week ago, which was the 12th time across their previous 14 internationals that they’ve failed to keep a clean sheet.

Manuel Neuer’s shaky form has to be a concern, especially given his huge error at the Bernabeu in the Champions League semis. However, Greece’s strike wasn’t a rare opportunity from an individual error, they posted an Expected Goals tally of 2.21 in the defeat, managing six shots on target.

At the 2022 World Cup, Germany saw both teams score in each of their three group games. While they’re expected to perform better in a home tournament, Greece caused them plenty of problems by aggressively hunting the German defenders while in possession. Nagelsmann is having some teething issues with their build-up play, which is something Scotland can exploit.

Germany to claim high-scoring win

Scotland head to Germany having won once across their last nine games, and that was a 2-0 victory over Gibraltar. In that stretch, they’ve conceded twice or more on seven occasions, so Steve Clarke’s side have their own suspect defensive record.

The absence of Aaron Hickey and Nathan Patterson – their two first-choice right-backs – will surely be felt at this level. That leaves Celtic’s Anthony Ralston matching up with Florian Wirtz. However, Clarke’s men still get plenty of production from the left-flank, with Kieran Tierney keen to push forward from left-centre-half in support of Andy Robertson. That overload can create chances for the Scots, but it’s also likely to leave them a little exposed.

Defensively, Scotland have gaps that Germany will exploit. Kai Havertz heads into the tournament as Germany’s likely starting striker having scored four goals in Arsenal’s final five games of the season. He looked bright against Greece, getting a couple of shots on target and scoring for the third time in six internationals. He leads an exciting front three alongside Wirtz and Jamal Musiala, so back the hosts to have too much quality. Scotland are capable of scoring, but back Germany to claim a win.