Hamburg vs Cologne Predictions

Relegation from the Bundesliga can often see clubs resigned to losing their best players, with bigger clubs cherry-picking bargains only too happy to jump from the sinking ship, but that hasn’t wholly been the case at either Hamburg or Cologne since their drop from the German top flight. At Cologne, Germany international Jonas Hector and goalkeeping talent Timo Horn spurned advances from some of Europe’s more prestigious teams, committing their future there for one season at least. The Billy Goats have, thus far, proved themselves a force to be reckoned with in the Bundesliga 2, standing top of the table with 21 points over their opening 11 matches (W6 D3 L2). However, they have managed to claim just two points since a defeat to struggling Duisburg just before the international break (D2 L1).

Hamburg, like the visitors, have been in a sort of limbo in terms of conviction. Der HSV are going through their first “rough patch” (if you can call it that) since beginning life outside the German top flight and their 1-0 win in Magdeburg last weekend was just the third goal they’ve scored in five matches (one 2-1 win, one 1-0 win and three 0-0 draws). A mid-week DFB Pokal outing against third-tier Wehen Wiesbaden did, at least, give Hamburg an opportunity to return some confidence in front of goal as forward Pierre-Michel Lasogga netted a brace in a 3-0 win. Maybe, just maybe, former Stuttgart boss Hannes Wolf, who took over last week, might have found a solution to their lack of goals.

Looking ahead to this huge Bundesliga 2 match, there are a couple of key factors that make us feel that this one will be worth tuning in for. Firstly, Cologne’s boss, former-Holstein Kiel manager Markus Anfang, has a very attacking philosophy. His former side may have failed to win promotion to the Bundesliga at the end of last season, but they did end the 17/18 campaign with the best goal difference in the league (+27 with 71 goals scored). His entertaining brand of football saw 71% of Kiel’s matches end with over 2.5 goals scored, while 50% of them saw more than 3.5 goals find the back of the net. Cologne’s performances under his leadership have shown that same fiery and aggressive style – something that has cost them in recent weeks – and has made ‘both teams to score’ a winning bet in a massive 82% of their matches!

And there’s no reason to expect that Anfang will deviate from that same offensive approach on Monday, with the Billy Goats having the artillery to back up that tactical line. Cologne’s Simon Terodde has been unstoppable as of late, having tallied a massive 17 goals over his last 11 competitive outings. He should prove a threat again here even against a Hamburg side that has kept a clean sheet in four of their last five league matches. And even though Hamburg haven’t been the most fluid offense in the Bundesliga 2, Cologne’s defensive form – keeping a clean sheet in just 18% of matches – should mean that they can bag at least one too. Such a blockbuster fixture is always going to be a tough one to call, especially with Hamburg under new management, but the value for us looks to be in this one ending deadlocked. Our prediction: a 1-1 draw.