Hamburg vs St Pauli Predictions

Hamburg have hit their first rough patch since beginning life outside the German top flight. Thursday’s 0-0 draw away to Greuther Furth did little to help the pain that was last weekend’s 5-0 defeat at home to Jahn Regensburg, a result that brought an end to a run of five consecutive wins across all competitions. New boss Christian Titz, who was promoted from his position as manager of Hamburg II (reserves) over the summer, has, however, been getting the most out of his new signings, with former-Rangers center back David Bates and winger Khaled Narey all given active roles over the opening months. Most importantly, Hamburg are yet to have the wind taken out of their sails in the same way as last season. The North Germans have frequently looked on another level to some sides in the Bundesliga 2, and coach Christian Titz will no doubt be hoping for a revival of that form in the huge Hamburg derby on Sunday.

In almost the opposite fashion, St Pauli have got themselves back on track following a run of consecutive defeats. Wednesday’s 2-1 victory was their second win since Friday and they now stand on 12 points from seven league games (W4 L3) – not bad for a side that finished 12th in the Bundesliga 2 last season. However, you have to note that their most recent wins were against two of the weaker sides in the German second tier – newly promoted Paderborn and second-bottom Ingolstadt. St. Pauli’s summer signings also look to be settling in well and both Mats Daehli and Marvin Knoll find themselves regulars in coach Markus Kauczinski’s starting XI – the latter, a former Jahn Regensburg defender, marking his St Pauli debut with the deciding goal in their opening 2-1 win.

So, what do we like betting-wise here? Well, out of both teams, you have to like the look of Hamburg to get a result here, and backing them to win looks the smart bet for the following reasons: firstly, the North Germans’ transition into the second tier has been very positive overall, something that has no doubt been helped by coach Christian Titz managing to keep hold of some of the club’s bigger names since their drop down from the Bundesliga. Midfielders Lewis Holtby and Aaron Hunt as well as forward Pierre-Michel Lasogga, now back from a spell at Leeds, are some such players. Lasogga has scored a whopping five goals over his last three home outings in the league (one hat-trick and a brace), so of all the players on the pitch, he’s the one you’d have to be looking at for goals on Sunday.

What’s more is that when you go back to the end of last season, Hamburg have won 9 of their last 14 matches across all competitions (W9 D1 L4). And even though they’ve failed to score in each of their last two outings, you have to note that Hamburg did rotate some players over that busy schedule – only Hamburg had three fixtures within nine days due to the postponement of an earlier fixture against Dresden – including top scorer Lasogga. Hamburg’s attacking talents on their day are exactly the sort of players that have the ability to put huge pressure on the visitors’ poor defensive record – St Pauli hold the joint 2nd worst defensive record in the Bundesliga 2 (14 goals conceded, an average of 2 goals per game). And with the visitors also losing in six of their last nine league matches on the road (W2 D1 L6) – those wins coming against two of the weakest sides in the league (Magdeburg and Ingolstadt) too – the ball is truly in Hamburg’s court. Our prediction: 3-1 Hamburg.