Third-placed Hertha Berlin had a bump in the road for their potential Champions League qualification last weekend, with a deflating 5-0 loss to fourth-placed Borussia M’gladbach. Hertha still hold a 3 point lead ahead of Monchengladbach, but this crushing loss has Berlin significantly behind when comparing goal difference. If Hertha Berlin hope to hold onto their Champions League qualifying position in the Bundesliga, they almost certainly need to do so with more points as goal difference likely won’t be enough. Manager Pal Dardai will certainly make sure his team give it their all in order to take all three points and strengthen their position in this match, with back to back fixtures against both Borussia Dortmund and league leaders Bayern Munich looming in the coming weeks.
Hannover 96’s season is all but over after they too suffered a significant, but unlucky, 3-0 loss last Saturday. Hannover dominated the game but failed to finish, as has been the case all season, meaning they come into this match off a fifth consequetive defeat and 11 points away from relegation safety. Needless to say it has been an awful season to be a Hannover fan, a season on par with that of Aston Villa in the Premier League, and they have been expressing their concern for weeks. As a result, Hannover 96 dismissed experienced manager Thomas Schaaf over the weekend (524 Bundesliga games as a coach), replacing him with Hannover 96 youth coach Daniel Stendel (no experience as Bundesliga coach). It is almost certainly too little too late for him to work any miracles, but at least there are 6 fixtures remaining for him to settle into his position and test out his tactics with Hannover before next season in the 2nd Bundesliga.
Hertha BSC are in every way clear favourites to win this fixture and at more times than not this season they were able to keep to their game plan, controlling the game and grinding out low scoring results. Six of their 7 home games so far in 2016 have ended under 2.5 goals with their biggest home win this season being only 3-0 against, at the time, a struggling Hamburg SV. Hertha Berlin may be expected to have something to prove after their embarrassing 5-0 defeat last weekend. But against a Hannover 96 team, under a new manager, who have nothing to lose, Hertha are likely to continue with a cautious “better safe than sorry” approach. Hertha will protect any lead and with Hannover lacking any attacking spark, there won’t be much they can do about it. Hence, combining the analysis above with the statistics below, expect this match to have under 2.5 goals with a tidy Hertha Berlin 1-0 win at 11/2 being the likely outcome.
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