Lecce vs Napoli Predictions

• Lecce have lost their last five games in Serie A, failing to net once during that run.
• Napoli, meanwhile, have won eight of their last 10 matches to nil.
• Only Lazio (19) have conceded fewer Serie A goals than Napoli’s 20 this campaign.
• Lecce are the Italian top flight’s least-creative side, according to expected goals statistics.

Bump in the road for champions-elect

Not many people foresaw AC Milan’s crushing 4-0 win over Napoli at the Stadio Diego Armando Maradona last week, with Rafael Leao running riot as the Rossoneri laid down a marker ahead of the rivals’ Champions League quarter-final matchup. That defeat looks highly unlikely to be anything other than a minor setback for Napoli, who retain a 16-point lead at the top of Serie A, but they will be aware of the importance of bouncing back at Lecce, particularly given their next European fixture comes just five days later.

Fortunately for Luciano Spalletti’s Scudetto-chasers, Lecce look unlikely to offer up any sort of threat. Marco Baroni’s men remain eight points clear of Serie A’s bottom three, but they have lost five successive matches to nil, sliding ever-closer to those below them. According to expected goals statistics, Lecce have been Serie A’s least-creative outfit this term, with their pitiful total of 22.4 xG comparing unfavourably to Napoli’s league-high 51.7 xG.

Napoli have suffered two defeats in their last four league games – more than they did in their first 24 this campaign, though second-placed Lazio and third-placed Milan were better placed to hurt them on the break than Lecce will be. Napoli have won eight of their last 10 matches to nil, and only Lazio (19) have conceded fewer than their 20 Serie A goals against this term. Incredibly, just seven of those concessions have come in the Partenopei’s 14 road games – 12 of which have been won.

Napoli backline back on top

Given Lecce’s awful attacking returns and Napoli’s excellent defensive record – last week’s result aside – backing the visitors to win to nil at a decent price looks an outstanding play for Friday’s game. With top goalscorer Victor Osimhen a doubt, Spalletti’s men may have to rely on their backline a little more than usual.

Meanwhile, a 2-0 Napoli victory could represent a strong correct score prediction – Napoli have scored multiple goals in 13 of their last 15 games across all competitions.

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