Scunthorpe vs Portsmouth Predictions

It’s not exactly been an excellent season thus far for Scunthorpe, though they should come into this fixture with their tails up having won on the road last time out. Stuart McCall’s men regained the winning thread when beating Burton in the FA Cup a fortnight ago, though they remained without a win in the league since early October, so last weekend’s victory should have refuelled the Iron’s confidence tank.

Scunthorpe did win last weekend, which will have pleased manager Stuart McCall, though what he probably won’t be too pleased with is the fact that his defence once again gave plenty away at the back. On that occasion, Scunthorpe gave away 2.38 expected goals, while they clocked just 1.17 of their own.

Like several teams in League One, Scunthorpe have more than enough quality to get competitive in the offensive third, but they’ve seemingly lost all defensive solidity this season. As things stand, only Plymouth have given up more expected goals than Scunthorpe during the current campaign, while only two teams have conceded more shots on target.

On their own patch, Scunthorpe have put their best foot forward at times, though even in front o their own fans, the Iron have struggled greatly to keep teams at bay. McCall’s men have kept just one clean sheet in nine home games, while they’ve conceded a worrying total of 23 goals during that time. Unsurprisingly no other team has conceded more home goals this season. In fact, no other team has conceded 20 goals yet, so it’s fair to say that Scunny are in a league of their own when it comes to conceding goals at home.

In contrast, Portsmouth have been excellent this season. Kenny Jackett’s men have sat top of the pile for a long time, and if recent performances are anything to go by, then they may be there for a while longer.

The visitors are without defeat in each of their last five league games, while they’ve only lost once all season long. They remain unbeaten on their travels. Their most recent away performance against Bradford wasn’t overly taking, but Jackett has got his team grinding out results even when they’re not at their best. Their average expected goal difference of +0.05 on the road isn’t amazing, though they’ve offered far more resistance at the back than Scunthorpe have, so it’s not exactly difficult to fancy the visitors.

From a betting point of view, this game is tricky to assess. Portsmouth are not easy to oppose as the league leaders, though their last two away performances haven’t been great. A struggling Bradford side outplayed them recently, so Scunthorpe, who’re no slouches offensively, could easily get a result here. With value very much in mind, the hosts are the team to side with at the prices.

With an average of 1.74 expected goals for at home, Scunny have the tools to hurt Pompey, who’ve recently shown signs that their away-day unbeaten record is in danger of coming to an end. Make no mistake about it, the hosts have been very poor at the back at times, but they’ve also enjoyed promising moments at home beating tough sides such as Charlton and Shrewsbury, so at the prices, backing the hosts simply represents a slice of value.