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Swansea City vs Brentford Predictions

England Championship | Liberty Stadium | 26th July
Swansea City badge
Swansea City
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • D
  • W
  • W
KO 18:30
Brentford badge
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • W
  • L
  • L

Swansea vs Brentford predictions ahead of the first leg of this playoff semi-final. Can Swansea build on their leap into the top six on Wednesday night, or will Brentford pick themselves up after conseutive defeats? Read on for our free Championship predictions and betting tips.

Predictions & Tips

We use stars to rate our confidence in our tips, with 3 being most confident to 1 being the least.
Swansea City Double Chance (Win or Draw) @ 8/11

We use stars to rate our confidence in our tips, with 3 being most confident to 1 being the least.
Swansea City 1-0 @ 17/2

Reason For Swansea City vs Brentford Predictions

  • The third-placed side has failed to win their first game in the playoffs in four of the last five seasons
  • Brentford have failed to win each of their last 10 playoff games
  • The Swans have only been behind for a combined 16 minutes across their last six games
  • The Welsh side have lost just once in seven games

What next for Swansea?

Swansea somehow managed to overturn the two-place, three-point and five-goal gap to Nottingham Forest on the final day of the season, sneaking into the top six after a heavy win at Reading. When you compare that incredible high to Brentford throwing away automatic promotion twice in a week it’s not hard to pick the happier camp coming into this first leg.

However, the Welsh side can’t act like they’ve peaked with that achievement. Being in the playoffs may be a bonus for them given how far away they seemed on Wednesday morning, but boss Steve Cooper has made it clear that he wants more. He’s called for focus ahead of their huge first-leg clash with Brentford, as there’s an opportunity for the Swans to pile on against a team who have lost back to back games.

Are Bees ready for the playoffs?

It’s only natural to question how ready Brentford are for this clash. Thomas Frank looked defeated following their 2-1 loss at home to Barnsley, so picking himself – never mind his players – up from that will be quite the task. That’s always been the problem for the side who miss out on automatic promotion, they struggle to pick themselves up immediately for the first leg. Only one of the last five sides to finish third have won the first-leg of their playoff semi-final. Leeds did it last season, but they already knew their fate going into the final day.

Meanwhile, Brentford haven’t been a side who have thrived in the playoffs in recent years. This is their first playoff campaign since 2015 when they lost in the semi-finals to Middlesbrough. The Bees have not won any of their last 10 playoff matches across different divisions (D3 L7).

The same can’t be said of this weekend’s opponents. This will be Swansea’s seventh different playoff campaign within England’s top four tiers – in their previous 17 such matches, they’ve only suffered three defeats (W8 D6) and they won promotion to the Premier League in 2011 in their last playoff campaign. Following that, we’re giving the hosts the edge in our predictions here.

Swans can hold their own

Swansea enter the playoffs on the back of four wins in their last six Championship matches (D1 L1). Across those six matches, the Swans have only trailed for a total of 16 minutes, while they put in a strong enough display to deserve three-points in their draw at Forest. Their only defeat across their last seven matches was a narrow 1-0 loss to Leeds, so we are confident that the Swans can hold their own here.

Only Wigan Athletic (17.9%) can boast a higher shot conversion rate since the Championship restart than Swansea City, who have scored 16 goals from 99 shots (16.2%). That’s been boosted by the great form of Rhian Brewster, who has found the net 10 times for the Swans despite only arriving at the club in January. They have enough threat to catch out this Brentford side, while the visitors have seen their goals dry up, with scoring just twice in their last three.

As a result, we are backing Swansea to avoid defeat here, with momentum, goals and history on their side. Brentford have had their troubles on the road this season, losing to nil at Forest, Millwall and Preston – the three sides who finished directly behind Swansea. The Bees lost 1-0 in six of their 23 away trips, while 70% of the Swans’ home wins have come by a single goal, so a 1-0 home win is our correct score prediction.

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