Hamburg vs RB Leipzig Predictions

Hamburg’s main goal this season was to return to the top flight, though they certainly won’t be turning their noses up at the chance to reach the DFB Pokal final. Things have gone well for Hannes Wolf’s men, who’re currently second in the second tier of German football, this season, so they may just fancy themselves to get the better of a very decent Leipzig side.

Hamburg are one of the big boys in the second division, as the league table suggests, though their recent efforts at home haven’t been too pleasing. They could only draw against Aue last time out, while they were recently beaten at this venue by both Magdeburg and Darmstadt. Such form doesn’t exactly bode well ahead of a match against a side of Leipzig’s quality.

The fact that Hamburg have got this far is of course impressive, though they’ve certainly had luck on their side. Tuesday’s hosts have reached the final without facing a top-flight opponent. Their efforts against Paderborn in the previous round were useful, but they’ll need to produce much, much more to come through this semi-final.

In contrast, Leipzig have got to the semi-finals thanks to three victories over Bundesliga teams, as they’ve beaten Hoffenheim, Wolfsburg and Augsburg. During that run, they’ve delivered some very encouraging efforts, especially from a defensive point of view. The fact that they shut out both Hoffenheim and Wolfsburg on route to the last four, conceding expected-goals figures of just 0.55 and 0.49 is very impressive.

From a betting point of view, the visitors are tough to oppose, though backing them to simply come out on top represents little value at the current prices. The bet that does stand out is ‘Leipzig to Win & Under 3.5 Goals’.

Hamburg will undoubtedly look to keep things tight at home, which is something that they can do; they’ve shipped an average of just 1.11 expected goals and an average of 1.27 at home this season, but the manner in which the visitors ground out wins against both Hoffenheim and Wolfsburg, both of whom have more about them than Hamburg, suggests that they can get the job done in low-scoring fashion.