Port Vale vs Morecambe Predictions

When they forced Newport to a draw away from home a fortnight ago, Port Vale looked as though they could put together a run of results that would steer them clear of the drop-zone, but they went back to disappointing last time out, as they lost away against fellow strugglers Cambridge. Having failed to win any of their last three, Vale have slipped to a rather displeasing 20^th position and are now just five points clear of safety.

Port Vale are struggling for results, there’s no two ways about it. Despite not being bowled over all that often, Saturday’s hosts are finding themselves being touched off on a regular basis, while they’re paying the price for a lack of final-third quality. Vale have now failed to score in each of their last three League Two matches. In fact, John Askey’s men have scored just three goals in their last nine. Unless their attacking efforts improve, then the National League is where Port Vale are likely to end up come May.

From a creativity point of view, Port Vale have done a bit better on their own patch, as they’ve averaged 1.36 expected goals for, which tells us that they probably should have scored a few more than they have, though the fact that they’ve scored an average of just 1.06 shows that they lack end-product. If they were very good at the back, such low attacking numbers might not be the biggest problems but keeping things tight on home soil isn’t something that Vale have done all that often. Saturday’s hosts have conceded in nine of their last ten at home, have conceded at least twice in three of their last five and are shipping an average of 1.67 goals and 1.58 expected goals.

Fortunately, Port Vale are up against a Morecambe side that has struggled immensely from an attacking point of view when playing away from home. The Shrimps, who’ve scored just once in their last three away games, have scored even less goals away from home than the hosts have scored at Vale Park, while they’re also offering considerably less in terms of creativity.

Saturday’s visitors did offer a rare glimpse of attacking hope when drawing away against Northampton recently, but their last five away-day expected goals for efforts of 1.42, 0.41, 0.41, 0.62 and 0.37 show us that they’ve found it very tough to make things happen in the final third. Moreover, Morecambe have found it tough to keep teams at bay too, as they’ve surrendered an average of 167 expected goals on the road this season.

Not often have Port Vale had a good opportunity to secure three points, but it looks like they’ve stumbled across one here. Given that they’re by no means a good side, it won’t be easy for punters to side with the hosts ahead of Saturday’s clash at Vale Park, but it is the hosts who stand out in the betting. To be more precise, the selection that catches the eye is ‘Port Vale to Win & Under 3.5 Goals’.

Scoring goals is not necessarily Vale’s forte, but they’ve offered lots more than their opponents in terms of creativity and they go up against a weak Morecambe back-line, which should aid their cause. With them boasting 1.36 expected goals for at home, against a visiting side that averages just 0.88 expected goals for on the road, the hosts are fancied to narrowly come out on top in a low-scoring affair.