Southend vs Sunderland Predictions

Given how poor they’ve been over the last few months, it’s somewhat strange that Southend come into the final match-day outside of the drop-zone. The Shrimpers are currently being saved by goal difference, which means that anything other than a win on Saturday evening would likely see them drop into the fourth tier of English football.

On any other weekend, beating Sunderland would be a tall order, though this may just be the right time for the Shrimpers to be facing the Black Cats. Saturday’s visitors cannot reach the automatic spots, which means that they’ll have one eye on the play-offs. As a result, Jack Ross may rest some of his key players, which could level the playing field.

Make no mistake about it, Southend have been very poor this season. Even if they stay up, it will be tough to say that they deserve it, such has been the level of their general play. However, the Shrimpers proved that there is still life in them last time out at this venue, as they delivered a rare promising performance against a more than useful Burton side. For once, they looked good going forward, as they created 2.2 expected goals for and scored three times, while they only gave 0.79 away, which tells us that they were somewhat unfortunate to concede two goals. A repeat of their effort against the Brewers may just see Southend get the desired result on Saturday.

In contrast, Sunderland were poor when last in action away from home. The Black Cats went to Highbury Stadium on Tuesday evening with hopes of keeping up the fight for automatic promotion, though as they were defeated, Jack Ross’ men can no longer finish in the top two.

They weren’t terrible on Tuesday, in fact, their efforts warranted a draw, but Sunderland once again underwhelmed from an attacking point of view, as they’ve often done away from home during the current campaign. At Highbury Stadium, they clocked just 1.11 expected goals for, while they only posted 0.9 in their previous away match. Overall this term, the Black Cats have averaged a rather poor 1.15 expected goals for on the road, so it’s fair to say that they’ve been anything but menacing going forward. In fact, they’ve conceded more than they’ve created, as they’ve surrendered an average of 1.31.

They do have lots of quality and they’re no easy side to beat, which is why they’re unbeaten in 11 on the road, though their overall lack of creativity is why they’ve failed to win six of those.

If this game had come a week earlier, Southend would be a much bigger price, though given the circumstances it’s easy to feel that there’s still a smidgen of value to be had by backing the hosts at the current odds. Sunderland are a better side than the Shrimpers, there can be no denying that, though will the visitors be that bothered about winning at Roots Hall on Saturday? What’s more, the Black Cats really haven’t been that impressive away from home this season. For example, they average just 1.15 expected goals for on the road. Southend average 1.33 at home. Not only do the host have extra motivation, but they’ll come into this game off the back of their best home performance for a long time, which may just inspire them to a final-day victory that seemed unlikely just a few weeks ago.