Basel vs Neuchatel Xamax Predictions

Despite being one of Switzerland’s biggest clubs, Basel have found it tough to really stamp their mark on the top division this season. Ten matches in and they find themselves down as low as 4^th position, while even if they win this match they’ll be nine points behind league leaders Young Boys. However, they did regain the winning thread last time out, so the hosts will come into this match in good spirits.

Having scored three on route to victory last time out, Basel should very much fancy their chances against an Xamax side that has struggled against the better sides on their travels. What’s more, Basel have delivered some promising attacking performances on their own patch, so much so that they should be scoring goals in this fixture.

After five home matches, Basel are scoring a respectable 2.2 goals on average, while their expected goals for average isn’t far behind at 1.93. Having seen them bag multiple goals against the likes of Luzern, Grasshoppers and St. Gallen, Marcel Koller will be expecting the goals to go in for his side in this fixture, though he may not be too optimistic about their defensive chances.

For all they have done well offensively on their own patch, Basel have struggled to keep teams out at St Jakob-Park. They’ve kept zero clean sheets, while they’re averaging a rather woeful 2.22 expected goals against per home match. Interestingly, in terms of expected goals, Basel are giving more away at home than bottom place Xamax are on their travels, such has been the level of their defending.

Against a side like Xamax, who’re currently propping up the rest of the division, you’d back Basel to do the business going forward, but it would be foolish to write the visitors off from an offensive point of view. Not only have Basel been shambolic at the back, even at home, but Xamax have offered enough on their travels to think that they can cause the home side problems.

On their travels, Sunday’s visitors have scored a respectable five goals in five matches, while they’ve been good value for at least a few more goals. On average, Xamax are managing 1.21 expected goals per away game, though they’re conceding an average of 1.81 at the other end. Against a side of Basel’s quality, their defensive issues are likely to be exposed again, but the underlying numbers certainly suggest that they’ll have opportunities in the final third.

Given the figures, Basel are somewhat short in the Win/Draw/Win market. They’re expected to come out on top but, the bet that really stands out is ‘Basel to Win & Both Teams to Score’. On their own patch, the hosts will undoubtedly have more about them in the final third, but their dodgy back-line means that they’ll likely have to do it the hard way.